 |
|
A handful of scenarios - ranging from no growth to widespread growth show how the South Coast could be shaped over the next 40 years
SIX WAYS TO GROW Increase in jobs, but not housing, has created a commuter culture By MELINDA BURNS Between 1960 and 2000, the number of homes on the South Coast doubled, but the number of jobs tripled. That imbalance helped produce 25,000 commuters to clog the freeway every day, according to a study released Thursday. A three-year study for the Economic Community Project funded by the James Irvine Foundation and local governments looked at how the South Coast has changed since 1960, and how the region could be shaped in the next 44 years. Armed with a computer model developed by the UCSB Department of Geography, the authors looked at the impacts of six hypothetical scenarios for the South Coast to the year 2040, ranging from no growth to widespread growth. The study makes no specific recommendations, but its message is that planning should be regional and take the long view. On Thursday, the 14 city and county politicians who came to the meeting learned that although there are many ways to shuffle the deck -- move the urban boundary open the entire coast to new development, increase the number homes per acre, curb commercial growth, build only affordable homes-there still would not be enough new housing at the end of 40 years to satisfy even today's demand. Today, the median price of a home on the South Coast is approaching $1 million. On average, only 25 affordable units are built per year between Gaviota and the Ventura County line. And 1.6 jobs are created for every home of any type that's built. Meanwhile, the rich make up nearly 40 percent of the population. Zoom forward 40 years with the same zoning policies, and watch the median price of a home skyrocket to $4 million. Now the rich make up 5 percent of the South Coast population and the poor are living nine or 10 to a home. There are 11,000 more commuters on the road. The "do nothing" growth scenario actually does a lot to further polarize the region along class lines, member of the Economic Community Project, a nonprofit group, told an audience of 150 people at the Cabrillo Pavilion on Thursday. "Doing nothing is not going to get you the community you have today," said Jon Clark, the group's president. "The community is changing around you. The future screams at you and requests that you work collaboratively now." County Supervisor Naomi Schwartz said the state has contributed to the jobs-housing imbalance by appropriating local property taxes. Counties and cities increasingly have approved new malls and other commercial development to make up the difference with sales taxes, Ms. Schwartz said. "It's a sad state of affairs," she said. "As long as that's the case, we have a very restricted scenario in which to consider our future." By 2040, the study shows, the population will likely be richer and smaller than it is today. Wealthy people tend to be older, with fewer children. The middle class would be frozen at third of the population or less, and at least 6,000 more commuters would be coming in every day. The South Coast will increasingly be a place where commuters hold the local jobs, and the local homeowners do not work here, the study found. "I call it the baby boomer bailout, "Mr. Clark said. "It's people who have made their money elsewhere and want to end up here." At the same time, the Economic community Project directors said, growth is not an inexorable phenomenon, and choices can be made to change the course of events. The data shows, for example, that new market-rate homes draw people from outside the South Coast, while primarily those working here fill new affordable housing. In its no-growth scenario, the study showed that if South Coast communities clamp down severely on housing and commercial development, the wealthy will likely make up 60 percent of the population in 2040, and they'll still have to put up with tens of thousands of commuters. Opening the coast to development the widespread growth scenario does not create more affordable housing, the study authors found. If new housing, most of it market rate, is allowed to spread to the Gaviota coast and into the Goleta foothills and rural lands of the Carpinteria Valley, then only 5 percent of the housing stock would be in the affordable range by 2040 - or half what it is today. "You can't just let 'er rip," said Michael Brown, a consultant for the project. "You will not get housing that serves lower-income people." On the other hand, if the South Coast decides to allow only affordable, housing to be built - the "all-affordable" scenario then 43 percent of the population in 2040 would be wealthy, the study showed. But the middle class would drop to 22 percent, down from 35 percent today. In the "new neighborhoods" scenario, the study examined what would happen if the Carpinteria Valley, the Bishop Ranch in Goleta and two miles of the Gaviota coast west of Goleta were opened to dense residential development-up to 20 units per acre, compared to 5 units per acre today. This would create the most homes by 2040- 20,000 in all - but only 7 percent of them would be affordable. Finally, an "infill" scenario looks at creating denser neighborhoods, building up to 20 homes per acre within the urban boundary lines. The result is that affordable housing would remain at current levels of 15 percent of the housing stock, and low-income families would make up a larger share of the population. Even so, nearly half the population would be wealthy. The Economic Community Project directors said their scenarios were designed to test theories and help policymakers find their way. "The burdens of growth fall most heavily on low-income people," said Mickey Flacks, a community activist. Michael Towbes, a real estate developer, said, "We're driving out the middle class. Our policy decisions have been based on short-term consequences." Architect Brian Cearnal stressed the need for a regional approach. "This is a slice of the world that's really remarkable. We really do have to figure it out together." HOW HOUSING COSTS AFFECT POPULATION The cost of housing on the South Coast may already be driving people away, according to recently released population estimates by the U.S. Census. A study by the Economic Community Project unveiled Thursday included five different computer models looking at population trends over the next 40 years. In each of those scenarios, the total population of the South Coast - now hovering just under 200,000 - declines, in some cases dramatically. According to the most recent estimates by the Census, the population in the city of Santa Barbara has already seen a slight decline of a few hundred people. Overall, the county's population has increased with much of the growth in the North County, according to the Census estimates, which are based on information distilled from the Internal Revenue Service, new building permits, births, deaths and other information. Population declines were also estimated in Bay Area cities such as San Francisco, Palo Alto and San Jose, hard hit by the bursting of the dot-coin bubble and the high cost of housing. But state demographers do not think the estimates are credible. For one, they believe the poor are notoriously undercounted in rich communities because they tend to live on the fringe in un-permitted crowded housing. The California Department of Finance continues to show a population increase in all Santa Barbara County cities. Brian Bresolin of the Santa Barbara County Association of Governments said the Census' method for making its estimates may miss the true -population trends in the city. "A few hundred fluctuation over several years for the city of Santa Barbara is probably more due application of their methodology than actual population decline," he said. - SCOTT HADLY THEN AND NOW: SNAPSHOT OF THE SOUTH COAST Income distribution 1960 and 2000 1960
2000
SOURCE: Santa Barbara Region Economic Community Project
|