The Conference Board announced that the leading index experienced its fourth consecutive decline in September, falling 0.1 percent to 115.6 (1996 = 100). Four of the 10 components comprising the index increased, including real money supply, stock prices, orders for non-defense capital goods, and building permits. Vendor performance and average initial claims for unemployment benefits were among the negative indicators. The leading index previously declined 0.3 percent in August.
Following a 0.1 percent increase in August, the coincident index, an index of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent to 118 in September. All four indicators increased, including personal income and employees on non-agriculture payrolls. During the six-month period that ended in September, the coincident index increased 1.0 percent.
The lagging index stood at 98.1 in September, remaining unchanged from August.
The Conference Board believes that the declines in the leading index have not been large enough nor have they persisted long enough to signal an end to the current economic expansion
Posted by gandlwoods at November 1, 2004 07:08 PM