The U.S. leading index, a key barometer of economic conditions, increased 0.2 percent to 115.2 (1996=100) in November after falling for five consecutive months, The Conference Board recently reported. During the six-month span through November, the leading index decreased 1.1 percent, with five out of 10 components advancing. The top three contributors to November's increase were stock prices, real money supply and the average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance.
The coincident index, an index of current economic activity, remained strong in November, increasing 0.1 percent to 118.5. All four components of the coincident index advanced. The lagging index decreased 0.1 percent to 98.3 in November, with four of the index's seven components advancing. Negative contributors to the lagging index were outstanding commercial and industrial loans, the average duration of unemployment and the change in labor cost per unit of output.
The Conference Board stated in a written release that the growth rate of the leading index has slowed below its long-term trend, but not to a rate historically associated with a recession.