There wasn’t out there on caravan this week, in fact we only saw one new house, so I thought it would be a good time to look at what went on statistically in town for the last thirty days.
From Carpinteria and Summerland to Goleta including, Montecito, Santa Barbaraand Hope Ranchthere were 65 single family dwellings that closed escrow excluding condos. For those properties the median sales price rose to $1,300,000 and the average sales price came in at $1,839,081. The Sales Price to List Price ratio was 94.25% which means that if a property was listed for $1,000,000 it sold for $942,500. This is reflected in the Median List price of $1,399,000 for those 65 Sold Properties. A really significant number in all of this is the Days on the Market or DOM. For those 65 houses that sold the DOM was 83. This contrasts markedly with the number of properties still listed. That number is 123.
All of these numbers contrast markedly with the total inventory of houses that are currently on the market. The Median List price for those houses is $1,595,000 representing a significant gap between what people are willing to pay and what people are willing to sell for. That gap is almost 20%. On the listing side of the equation the other significant number is the 428 currently listed houses which is down markedly from the high of over 600 three months ago. And again, the days on the market is significantly higher for those properties that are still currently listed. The average Days on the Market is 123 some 30% higher than the properties that sold.
It looks like things will continue just as they have because while 65 properties closed escrow, 65 properties entered escrow. The interesting numbers here are first; the Median List price of the properties that entered escrow was $1,049,000 while the properties that sold was $1,300,000. And second, the Days on the Market which is 95 as opposed to the 83 for the homes that sold. So it took longer for the properties to less in price. Is this a trend, it’s hard to say because things definitely bounce around from month to month
It looks to me that the number of sales will continue right about where it is while the sales prices will continue to trickle down. Looking at the huge run up in valuation in the past few years it’s really not very surprising that there would be a fall back in the prices of homes.
Over on the condo side of the market, 27 properties closed escrow in the last 30 days. The median sales price for those 27 was $635,000 and the average sales price was $767,092. The sales price to list price ratio was 96.64% slightly higher than the 94.25% of single family homes. The number of sales is about where it’s been all year. Roughly 30 condos a month have closed escrow in the Santa Barbara area. In November there were 22 that closed escrow, but the average is still about 30 per month. The number that has changed over the year is the Days on the Market. For the last 30 days Condos stayed on the market for 94 as opposed to Single Family Homes at 83. This has increase markedly from about 30 Days of Market time earlier in the year to 94 now.
Looking at the 185 condos that are currently listed, like single family homes the number is down substantially from a high of 300 three months ago. There is definitely some seasonal aspect to these numbers, but looking at the last few previous years the numbers are down more dramatically currently.
The good news for the people selling condos is that the Median List price for the condos on the market which currently is $649,000 is a lot closer to the $635,000 median sold price than the ratio between Median List and Median Sold prices of Single Family dwellings. There is only about a 4% difference as opposed to the 20% for homes. The bad news is that for those 185 condos still on the market the average Days on the Market is 125. The question is what it will take to start moving those condos out?
Just like single family dwellings the exact number of Condos sold which was 27 is the same as those that entered escrow. The interesting number of the condos that entered escrow is the Median List price for those homes is up to $680,000. What this means is that the homes on the lower side of the market are not selling, while the ones farther up are.
Again, it looks like things are going to stay about where they are for now. About 60 Single Family Dwellings and approximately 30 Condos will close escrow per month. And the price for both will continue to trickle down. The question is, when will the prices stabilize so the buyers stop standing on the sidelines waiting for further declines?
All statistics are from the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service.
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