For the first month of the year 2007 for Santa Santa Barbara Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate – Summerland Real Estate and Goleta Real Estate there were some good signs and some disturbing ones. We began the year with 55 closings of Home and Estate/Planned Unit Development properties. This number is down slightly from the past 3 months, which means we’re still seeing a decline in the number of units sold. For all of 2006 we averaged 75 sales per month but in the fourth quarter that number went down to approximately 60 per month. So 55 is a movement still lower.
The median price for those 55 sales was $1,250,000 so it’s gone up almost 10% from the previous year. This is indicative of the fact that the higher priced properties are still the ones that are selling. The Median List price for those properties was $1,295,000, which gives us a Sold Price to List Price ratio of 96.6%. Again up from the previous year.
The really good number for the Real Estate industry is the number of properties that went into escrow in January 2007. This number was up to 92 for a substantial increase. If this trend continues we’ll be looking at an overall increase in sales for the year. But it’s obviously too early to tell if this is a real trend or just a blip on the radar. Looking more closely at the number of sales we see that of the properties that went into escrow the Median List price was $1,049,000 that means that the slightly less expensive homes are starting to move now. This could definitely be a good sign because there are always more lesser priced houses for sale than more expensive ones.
The overall inventory, or total number of homes for sale was about the same from the previous month with 399 homes on the market at the end of the month. The bothersome number is that the Median List price for those almost 400 home is $1,665,000 meaning that the gap between what people are willing to pay and what people are willing to sell for is still about 25%. Until that gap really starts to narrow it will restrict dramatically the number of properties that sell.
Looking more closely at the Median Sales price we see that the highest Sold Price for a property for the month of January was $7,900,000 for a home out in Summerland area and the lowest Sold Price was $455,000 for one close to downtown Santa Barbara.
The average sales price for those 55 homes was a whopping $1,972,636 and the Average Market time, which is the time from when the property is listed until it closes escrow, was 136 days.
To give you a little perspective on the numbers in 2004 there were 77 sales in January for 2005 there were also 77, for 2006 there were 64 and for 2007 55. The median sales price went from $952,500 in January 2004 to $1,170,000 for 2005 to $1,125,000 for 2006 and to $1,250,000 for 2007.
As I mentioned the encouraging numbers to me are the properties that entered escrow in the month. For 2004 there were 99, then it dropped to 86 for 2005, then declined further in 2006 to 77 and then rose in 2007 to 92. We’ll have to get a little deeper into the year to see whether this trend continues, but as of now this looks very good.
Over on the Condo side of the ledger there were 28 that closed escrow in the first month of the year. This number is down slightly from the past 3 months, which means we’re still seeing a bit of a decline in the number of units sold. For all of 2006 we averaged about 30 sales per month and in the fourth quarter those numbers were right at that same level. So 30 seem to the current magic number for condos to be sold per month.
The median sales price for those 28 condos was $663,500 so it’s stayed right about where it’s been for the past few months. A percentage or two up, but basically right at the same level for the previous year. The condo market is almost always more volatile than the home and estate market so maybe we’ve reached a leveling off which could entice the buyers back into the market. The Median List price for those sold properties was $669,000, which gives us a Sold Price to List Price ratio of 95.33%. This is again right about where we’ve been for the previous year.
The really good number for the Real Estate industry is the number of condos that went into escrow in January 2007. This number was up to 39 for a substantial increase of about 25%. If this trend continues we’ll be looking at an overall increase in sales for the year. But just as with Single Family dwellings, it’s way too early to tell if this is a real trend or just a blip on the radar. Looking more closely at the number of sales we see that of the properties that went into escrow the Median List price was $669,000 which means that the slightly more expensive homes are starting to move now. If this trend holds we’ll start seeing an increase in the overall Median Sales price for condos. It would be more significant if we had more homes in the $400,000 to $500,000 range moving, but for now we’ll take what we get.
The overall inventory, or total number of condos for sale has risen slightly from the previous month with 170 condos on the market at the end of the month. The bothersome number is that the Median List price for those 170 condos is still below the median sold price and that could mean that the market is continuing to pull down. The gap for condos which is again what people are willing to pay as opposed to what people are willing to sell for is about -2% which is very close but still below.
Looking more closely at the numbers for median sale price we see that the highest Sold Price for a property for the month of January was $2,425,000 for a condo in the Montecito area and the lowest Sold Price was $213,200 for one in the unincorporated area of the county.
The average sales price for those 28 homes was $738,614 and the Average Market time, which is the time from when the property is listed until it closes escrow, was 140 days. This number is still larger than that which the Home and Estates took, but the gap is definitely diminishing.
To give you more perspective on the numbers in 2004 there were 40 sales in January for 2005 there were also 29, for 2006 there were 28 and for 2007 28. The median sales price went from $545,000 in January 2004 to $627,000 for 2005 to $675,000 for 2006 and to $662,000 for 2007.
As I mentioned the encouraging numbers to me are the condos that entered escrow in the month. For 2004 there were 34, then it dropped to 27 for 2005, then declined further in 2006 to 26 and then rose in 2007 to 39. We’ll have to get a little deeper into the year to see whether this trend continues, but as of now this looks very good.
Well that’s about it for Santa Barbara Real Estate for the month of January 2007. Things are definitely starting to point in the right direction for the market to be picking up so hopefully the trend will continue.
Posted by gandlwoods at February 3, 2007 07:03 AMThree things I think should be mentioned. First, Notice of Defaults have shot up 300% from last year. Second, thousands of ARM loans are set to reset in SB County (50% of properties sold in the last three years were ARM loans)which will increase defaults. Third, they're selling condos in Montecito for $420/square foot and $350/square foot in Santa Barbara, which is a huge drop from 2005-2006. All these things add up to dropping prices over the next 2 or three years.
Posted by: clearview at February 3, 2007 08:01 AMHi, just surfed through from a search for Santa Barbara. I'm a Realtor in Fargo, North Dakota but I'm a former Santa Barbarian - Goletian actually. My aunt was one of the first women Realtors there, Iola Thomas of Thomas Real Estate, and I can't help thinking that she'd be spinning in her grave at the thought of million dollar median house prices!
I was wondering if you'd mind me quoting some of your stats on my blog? It makes quite a contrast in conjuction with our 170,000 median price!
Posted by: Linda at February 3, 2007 03:13 PM