For the first three months of the year 2007 for Santa Barbara Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate – Summerland Real Estateand Goleta Real Estate some numbers are up and some are down. The number of sales of Home Estate/PUDs is up to 225. This is about 5% ahead of where we were at this time last year and almost up to the where we were in 2005. The Median Sales price is down however. At this time in 2006 we were at $1,175,000 and for 2007 we’re at $1,129,000. The only part of the area which is up is Montecito which continues to grow at about a 10%-12% rate. This growth is particularly evident in the $3,000,000 and up range.
The number that really jumps out at me is the number of Homes that have gone into Escrow or are Pending as we like to say. For 2007 we’re at 283 properties as opposed to last year’s 237. This is almost a 25% increase in the number of homes entering escrow. The really good news is that those properties for the most part complete the sale process and do indeed close. One indicator that is definitely good news is what’s called the Fall Through rate is down. This rate is the percentage of properties that fall out of escrow. For 2006 this number was 12.6% and for 2007 it’s down to 9.8%.
The number of new listings that have come on the market this year is at 443 slightly behind the 2006 pace of 455 which was a high water mark for past few years. The median list price for those properties that have come on the market this year is at $1,349,000 slightly above the 2006 number of $1,329,000 but below the 2005 number of $1,495,000.
Looking at the entire area at this time last year the median sales price was $1,175,000 right now it’s $1,129,000. This is a drop of about 4% in the median sales price. The median list price of homes on the market currently stands at $1,349,000 and last year it was $1,329,000 for an increase of 1.5%. Again the number that really stands out to me is the gap between the median sales price of $1,129,000 and overall inventory median list price of $1,695,000. This means that the amount people are willing to pay is more than a half a million dollars less than what people are asking for a percentage of 33.4%.
For Home Estate/PUDs the market is looking very good right now. Sales are up about 25% but the Median Sales price is down about 4%. The interest rates appear to be stable at this point so it looks like we’ll have a good year. The number of Sales will probably be slightly lower than the 2004 rate but definitely ahead of where we were in 2006.
Over on the Condo side of the ledger the picture is not quite as good on the Home Estate market. Sales are up about 10% from where they were last year but below the 2004 and 2005 levels. The median sales price is down about 8% from last year. Currently it’s at $632,500 and in 2006 it was $684,500.
Just like with Home Estates the number of homes entering escrow is up. Last year at this time it was 82 and right now it’s at 102 for an increase of about 20%. The bothersome number is the Fall Through rate is up fairly dramatically. Currently it stands at 12.7% up from the 2006 level of 9.7% and way ahead of the 2004 level of .9%. There are a lot of factors that go into this number including tightening of lending requirements and a general concern over where the market is going. People see that the prices have come down and they wonder if they will continue to come down. This causes people to pull back from sales and leads to a reticence to go forward with a purchase.
The number of listings that have come on the market is down slightly from 2006 which was a robust 212 at this time but currently the number of 199 which is still substantially ahead of the 2004 and 2005 levels. The Median List price of $649,000 is below the 2006 level of $698,000 but it’s more than $100,000 over the 2004 level of $539,000.
Currently the condo median sales price of $632,500 is 7.6% below the 2006 price of $684,500 and the median list price of $649,000 is 7.1% below the 2006 list price of $698,000. But unlike Home Estates where we saw a huge gap between the Median List Price and the Median Selling Price the current Median Sales Price of $632,500 if 2.7% below the Median List Price for the entire inventory of $650,000.
The condo market looks like it’s going to stay exactly where it’s been. For all of 2006 we averaged 20 condo sales per month and currently we’re still right at that level thus far in 2007. There is an increase of properties that are going into escrow, but there is also an increase in the number of properties falling out of escrow. This means that basically there is not an increase or decrease in the number of units sold.
The Median Sales Price has dropped, but this drop has not seemed to spur buyers to act. It will probably take a further decrease in price to get this market moving. The problem would be if the prices start dropping dramatically and it spurs a panic in the market. I don’t see this happening but there could still be a gradual trickling down of condo prices. Again, basically I see the condo market staying exactly where it’s been for over a year with prices going down gradually.
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Posted by gandlwoods at April 7, 2007 06:20 AM