For the first four months for the year 2007 for Santa Barbara, Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, and Carpinteria Real Estate – Summerland Real Estate as well as Goleta Real Estate the numbers look pretty darn good. For April we had 88 Home Estate/PUDs close escrow as opposed to 100 in March but it still puts us ahead of where we were if you look at the entire period of January through April for both 2006 and 2005. In 2007 we’ve closed 317 properties, in 2006 it was 287 and for 2005 it was 313. The median sales price which has been lagging as much as 5% as compared to 2006 is currently ahead of that number. For the first four months we’re right at $1,200,000 and at this time last year we were at $1,195,000.
The really good numbers are the number of homes that have gone into escrow in the first part of the year. Thus far we’ve put 369 Home Estate/PUDs into escrow as opposed to 306 for 2006, 261 for 2005 and 333 for 2004. Even the Fall Through rate or the percentage of homes that have fallen out of escrow continues to decline. Currently it’s at 10.3% down from the 2006 high of 11.4%. If we continue with these numbers 2007 could be a really good year.
Another number that really jumps out at me is the number of new listings which have come on the market. So far for 2007 we’ve seen 611 properties come on as opposed to 590 for 2006, 406 for 2005 and for and 444 for 2004. The Median list price of $1,295,000 is slightly lower than where it was in 2006 when it was at $1,329,000.
Looking at year over year the Median Sales price is about 1% ahead of where it was in 2006 and the Median List price is down about 1% below from where it was last year. The only number that still jumps out at me is the difference between the Median Sales price of $1,200,000 and the Median List price for the current inventory of $1,595,000. This leaves us with a 24.8% gap between what people are willing to pay and what people are willing to sell for.
Over on the Condo side of the ledger things are also looking up. In April we had 36 Condos close escrow which is about 20% ahead of where we’ve been for most of the last year and the first 2 quarters of this year. Looking at the period of January through April we’ve closed 127 units compared to 106 last year, but not quite up to the ’04 and ’05 levels of 145 and 144 respectively. The Median Sales price is down however from last year when it was $669,250 to today’s $635,000 level.
Again the real news is the number of properties that have gone into escrow this year. Last year at this time only 109 properties had entered escrow and this year the number is 141. It’s not quite at the ’04 level of 156 or the ’05 level of 153, but 141 is a very good number of condos that have entered escrow.
But unlike Home Estate/PUDs where we’ve seen a decline in the Fall Through rate, for condos that rate is up. In 2006 we saw an 8.3% Fall Through rate and in 2007 we’re experiencing an 11.3% rate. But even with that increased Fall Through rate we’re still about 25% ahead in the number of sales as opposed to last year.
The number of new listings is about 10% below where it was in 2006. Currently we’ve seen 268 Condos come on the market as opposed to last year’s 299 to this period. The median list price has also come down from a high of $699,000 last year to $649,000 this year for about a 10% decrease.
So to recap, in 2006 the Median Sales price was $669,250 and this year it’s $635,000. This is a decline of about 5.2%. The Median List Price has fallen even further from its high of $699,000 in 2006 to $649,000 this year for a 7.2% decline.
Currently there really is no gap between the current Median Sales price of $635,000 and the current Median List price of $647,500 which 2% above the Sales price.
The condo market looks like it’s starting to move ahead. We were stuck right at about 30 units per month closing escrow for all of 2006 and now for March and April we’ve seen an increase of about 10% in each of those two months. If this holds I think the prices may also start to stiffen. We’ve seen a decline year over year of about 5% in the Median Sales price which it not totally unexpected when you look at the huge increase that has occurred from 2002 to 2004.
This all means that in both the Home Estate/PUD market and the Condo market sales are definitely going up and on the Home Estate side prices are currently staying right about where they were for 2006. On the Condo side the Median Sales price is down slightly but it does not look like it’s going to continue to drop.
You forgot to include opened escrow numbers for April. Only 70 homes opened escrow in April that did not fall out. Only 31 condos.
Beginning in the last week of March banks and lending institutions began to tighten lending standards. Banks across the country, including local banks such as Montecito Bank and Trust, are losing billions because of all the bad home loans they wrote between 2002 and March of this year. May closed escrow and sales price numbers will reflect the tighter standards.
June's numbers are going to be lower than May's.
Posted by: clearview at May 7, 2007 11:14 AM