This analysis is going to look at the ’07 vs. the’06 numbers for Carpinteria Real Estate, Summerland Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, Santa Barbara Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate and Goleta Real Estate. Starting with Home Estate/PUDs the number of Total Listings that have been on the market this year is 1,497. Last year at this time it was 1,446. This gives us a slight rise of 3.5% in the number of properties available for purchase. But, the number of New Listings that have come on the market this year is slightly lower with 1,059 this year vs. 1,066 last. The Median List price for those properties is almost exactly where it was last year. Currently it’s at $1,285,000 last year it was $1,295,000.
Now the plot starts to get a lot more interesting. The number of properties that had gone into escrow last year at this time was 504, this year that number is up to 525. This is an increase of about 4.2%. But even more interesting is the number of properties that have closed. Last year at this time it was 474 and this year it’s 525 for an increase of 10.5%.
The Median Sales Price has also continued to increase this year. Last year it was $1,210,000 currently it’s at $1,262,000 for all of ’07. This is an increase of 4.3% year over year. An even more impressive number is the overall sales volume. Last year it was $897 Million and now it’s at $1,077 Billion for an increase of 19.5%
This means that the Average Price for a Single Family dwelling in Santa Barbara has gone to $2,051,462 up from $1,893,396 for an increase of 7.8%.
Overall the market in 2007 for Home Estate/PUDs is healthy with increased numbers of Escrows, Sales, Median Sales Price, Sold Volume and Average Home Price. There has been a huge increase in the upper end of the market which tilts some of the numbers but all Districts except Carpinteria/Summerland and Goleta South have seen an increase in the numbers of sales for their particular areas.
On the Condo side of the ledger we see that the Total number of Active Listings is down when compared to ’06. Last year there were 626 properties available and this year it’s down to 607 for a decrease of -3.1%. The number of New Listings is down even farther with 483 coming on the market in ’06 compared to only 423 this year for a decline of -14.9%.
Usually when there’s less of something the price gets higher, but in this case the Median List price has come down from $689,000 to $645,000 this year for a -6.8% decrease.
The good news with the decline of the Median List Price is that the number of Condos that have gone into escrow this year has increased dramatically. In ’06 only 172 Condos had entered escrow, this year the number is 226 up +27.5%.
The really good news is that the Number of Sold Condos is also up. Last year it was 172 and currently it’s at 214 up +24.5%. A big reason that the number of sales has increased is that the Median Sales Price has declined from $675,000 last year to $640,000 this year for a -5.5% decrease. Counter balancing the decreased Median Sales price is a huge rise in the overall Sold Volume. Last year it was $131 Million this year it’s $171 Million for a +29.5% increase. This means that the Average Sold Price has risen from $764,479 in ’06 to $803,387 this year for a +5.1% increase.
From where the Condo market was earlier in the year it has definitely started to surge ahead. The Escrows, Sales, Average Sales Price and overall Sales Volume are all up with only the Median Sales price down.
The number of sales is up in every district in town except Goleta North. If this trend continues we should see a stiffening of the Median List price for Condos and we’ll also start to see a few more Condos coming on the market.
Overall the Real Estate market in Santa Barbara looks good right now even though we’re starting to see more Bank Owned properties being put up for sale. Those properties have not caused a spiraling down of the market and as of now haven’t slowed sales.
To amplify on that theme in March we saw 100 Home Estate/PUDs sold, in April it went to 88 then in May it was 75. But for June that number bounced back up to 92. For Condos we saw 33 properties go out in March, 36 in April, 40 in May and 33 in June. This means the market is been relative stable for 2007 with substantial increases over 2006.
These numbers contradict the national sales numbers but we always feel that Santa Barbara Real Estate is something special.
Your statistics do not give a clear picture of the collapsing housing market.
All the year over year gains you cite in your report happened in the first quarter of this year, before mortgage lenders began to tighten up lending standards. Beginning in April SFR sales began to drop off. The second quarter sales in 2007 are not much better than 2006. The trend in sales and prices are downward going into the third quarter. Your year to year comparison this October will show sales volume less than 2006. And 2006 was 30% off from 2005.
For both SFR's and condos comparative selling prices have dropped 20% from their 2005 peaks. This means that the average person who bought a house or condo in 2004-present owe more on the property than what the property is worth, with the sales price trend going downward.
The median and average prices you cite are misleading. More higher end properties are selling than lower end. This skews the median and average price. You must compare individual properties to similar properties in the same neighborhood to get a good picture of price increases or decreases. As mentioned before, such comparisons show selling prices have dropped 20% from their 2005 peak.
Posted by: clearview at July 11, 2007 09:31 AM