For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area from Goleta Real Estate to Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate as well as Montecito Real EstateHope Ranch Real Estate for Home Estate/PUDs the market continues strong through August ’07. Unlike the dire news throughout most of the rest of the country including most of California the number of sales is about 10% ahead of where it was last year at this time and the median sales price is about 4% above where it was previously.
The top end of the market remains very hot with more than 25% of the sales coming in above the $2,000,000 mark. There were 4 sales above $5,000,000 for the month with the top price being just south of $19,000,000. To further amplify on how far the upper end of the market has skewed the numbers, the total number of sales is up 9.3% and the total sold volume is up 14% to an amazing $1.3 billion dollars.
While the market is continuing to be pushed by the higher dollar value properties particularly in Hope Ranch and Montecito even when you take those homes out of the mix the median sales price is exactly where it was last year, currently residing at $1,050,000. Earlier in the year this number had fallen down below where it was last year, but currently it’s exactly the same.
This strength in the over all marketplace is illustrated by the fact that every district in the Santa Barbara Real Estate area has posted sales above where they were in ’06 except for Goleta North and South. In Goleta North the sales are off about 7% and in Goleta South they’re off by about 8%.
Even though the overall median sales price without Hope Ranch and Montecito is the same as it was last year, there is considerable softening in the $700,000 to $900,000 market for Home Estates. We’ve seen prices fall in this range as much as $100,000 or more. Houses that were selling in the low $900s are now looking at the high $700s in some areas.
The only number that bothers me for the month of August is the number of properties that entered escrow. To put this in perspective, 87 properties closed escrow, but only 63 entered. This number was definitely affected by the sudden liquidity problem in the financial markets leading to a tightening of credit requirements. But we’ll have to see whether this is a trend or an anomaly.
It’s difficult to say how soon the financial markets will take to resolve their issues, but for now the numbers for Santa Barbara Real Estate still look good. With sales up and the median sales price continuing to rise, the basic underpinning of the market seems strong at this time.
Over on the condo side of the ledger the picture is more mixed. The number of listings is down about 19% for the year, but the number of sold properties is up by 22.4%. This increase in activity is being driven however by a decline in the median sales price. Last year at this time the median sales price was $675,000, this year its $613,500 for the entire year for almost an 8% fall. Even the average sales price has declined by 2.4% from $769,481 to $758,184.
Just looking at the month of August we see that 27 condos closed escrow but 33 entered escrow. Unlike Home Estates where we had substantially fewer properties entering escrow as opposed to leaving escrow the condo market appears to be moving forward. The median sales price of condos in August is down however to $549,000 with 10 of the 27 sales coming in between $500,000 and $549,000. The overall market time for those properties that sold was 111 days. This means that if you list your condo today the average time it would take to complete the sale process would be about 4 months.
Looking at all of ’07, just like the Home Estate market the upper end is driving the market giving us a 22% rise in the total sold volume for Condos. Through the first 8 months of ’07 over $200 million in condos has changed hands.
The increase in activity is not just confined to the upper end however. Every district in Santa Barbara has more sales this year as opposed to last year with the really significant rise coming in Montecito. Last year at this time only 9 condos had closed escrow and this year it’s up to 23 already.
The fact that the condo market for Santa Barbara Real Estate in August was as strong as it was surprised me. I thought that this would be the market that would be hit most significantly by the credit problem. But, the increase in the number of properties entering escrow as opposed to those closing escrow would seem to waylay that concern.
The large fly in the ointment for Santa Barbara Real Estate is the credit issue which is particularly significant with jumbo loans. At this point I still see the problem as a temporary liquidity issue that will resolve itself rather quickly but we’ll have to see where the market goes in the last quarter of ’07.
For now, I still see the Real Estate market as strong in the Santa Barbara area with rises in sales and median sales price for Home Estates and mixed for Condos with sales up significantly but a decline in the median sales price.
I agree on that however the ball is always rolling and its better to keep ahead.
Posted by: John Rey at September 9, 2007 07:26 PM