Analysis through the end of February ‘08 for the Santa Barbara Real Estate including Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Goleta Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate and Summerland Real Estate
As February ’08 ended there was a tremendous surge in activity for both the Home Estate/PUD and Condo market. Starting with Home Estates the month ended with 52 closed escrows up from the 42 we saw in January. There was an increase in the Median Sales Price to $1,335,500 for the month with the Average Sales Price Surged to $2,447,426. Even with this rise in the Median and Average numbers we saw that the sellers did have to come down significantly from their expected prices because the Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio dipped to 88.68%. This means if a property was listed for $1 million it closed escrow at $880,000. An 11% reduction in a List Price is not extraordinary particularly with higher priced properties, but this is a higher percentage than what we saw in ’04 and ’05.
Certainly some of the increase in sales is seasonal as we start to move into spring but the real surge for the month came with properties going pending. 79 dwellings entered escrow which when viewed against the backdrop of 52 sales means that there is a definite gathering momentum. The other number pointing to a surge in activity is a reduction in the Days on the Market. This figure is the time from when the property was listed until it went into escrow. For the 52 Homes that closed escrow it was 96 for the ones entering escrow it was 84. This means a seller had to wait about 2 weeks less to get an accepted offer for their home.
The 52 sales were spread evenly across the board with 20 properties closing below $1 million, 20 homes closing above $2 million and 12 from $1-$2. The highest priced sale was almost $13 million for a home high up in Montecito and the least expensive sale was below $600,000 out in Goleta North. While the Average Days on the Market is heading in the right direction down to an average 96 days for the month of February some sellers did have to wait a substantial amount of time to get an accepted offer. For instance a property listed from $550,000 to $599,999 had to wait 248 days, one listed from $1,200,000 to $1,299,999 waited 131 and one from $3,250,000 to $3,499,999 waited for 522 days.
Entering the market for the month of February were 140 Homes with a Median List Price of $1,395,000 and an average List Price of $2,317,276. The Median Number is very close to the Median Sales Price for the month but about $150,000 above the Median Sales Price for the first two months of the year. Hopefully this increase in the Median Sales Price will not blunt the rush of activity we’ve felt in February.
Looking at some of the other figures for the month we see that 22 homes got withdrawn from the market with a median list price of $2,395,000, 14 listings were cancelled with a median list price of $1,100,000 and 49 properties expired with a median list price of $1,375,000.
At the end of the month of February there were 510 Home Estate/PUDs on the market with a Median List Price of $1,575,000 and an average List Price of $3,062,109. This is an increase of about 15% year over year in the number of homes available.
I’m very encouraged by the increase in activity. The high end is definitely leading the way just as it did in ’07 but the sales are across a wide range which should mean the surge will continue. Interest rates are still low and should continue that way for the foreseeable future. If things continue the way they’ve ended February we could still see a good year for the Home Estate market in Santa Barbara.
For the Condominium Market in Santa Barbara, February was a mixed month. There was some bad news and some very good news. Starting with the bad, the numbers of sales for February dipped to 13. This is down from 18 in January and only slightly ahead of December’s 12. On the good side of the 13 sales was a rise in the Median Sales Price for the month to $675,000 which was coupled with a rise in the Average Sales Price to $823,153. Also on the good side, we saw a reduction in the Days on the Market to 86, and a rise in the Sales Price to Original List Price ratio to 92.43%. This means that condo sellers only gave back about 7% of what they thought they would receive.
The price range of those 13 sales while not quite as wide as that demonstrated by Home Estates still was extensive. There were 6 sales below $650,000 and 7 sales above with 2 properties selling in the $2,000,000-$2,249,000 range. The highest priced property for February was on the East Side close to downtown and the lowest priced condo at below $300,000 was in the Goleta South Area. The amazing part about the upper end condos that sold was that neither one of them was in the Montecito area. This means that since November there has been only 1 condo close in Montecito.
The really good news for the month was that 33 Condos entered escrow. These condos had a Median List Price of $600,000 and an Average List Price of $737,190. To amplify on that thought, we also saw a reduction in the number of Fall Throughs, or properties falling out of escrow. Hopefully this is a trend and not an anomaly.
Coming on the market for February were 51 Condos with a Median List Price of $629,000 and an Average List Price of almost $800,000. This approximately $630,000 Median List Price has been stable for the past several months. Perhaps the rise in the numbers of escrow means that condo buyers have come to think that prices have stabilized and that now is a good time to pick up what would be a bargain compared to a couple of years ago.
Looking at the rest of the numbers we see 3 properties withdrawn, 10 cancelled, 12 expired with only 3 coming back on the market. As of the end of February there were 181 Condos available from Carpinteria to Goleta with a Median List Price of $675,000 and an Average List Price of $908,637.
We should know in the next couple of weeks whether what we saw at the end of February was a real surge or just a temporary upward fluctuation in the market. My general feeling is that Santa Barbara will rebound quicker than the rest of the nation because it has always been somewhat insular. Looking at what’s sold in the past few years we definitely see what could be termed bargains right now and with the still low interest rates I think this is a good time to buy.