Analysis of Santa Barbara Real Estatethrough the end of March ‘08 including Goleta Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate/ Summerland Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate and Hope Ranch Real Estate.
There were more Home Estate/PUD sales in March than there were in February but the numbers did not reflect the substantial surge of activity that occurred in the last 3 weeks of February. Last month we saw 52 Home Estates close escrow and in March there were 67. Most of the increase can be attributed to the natural seasonal increase in activity rather than what could be termed a trend. The Median Sales price for March came down to $1,140,000 from the $1,335,500 mark of February which meant that there was more activity slightly father down the price scale than was evidenced in the previous month. 39 of the 67 sales came in below $1,000,000 with 19 from $1 to $2 million and 19 above $2 million. The upper end remained strong however with 4 sales over the $5 million mark but definitely the real action for the month was in the $600,000 to $800,000 range.
The Sales Price to Original List Price rise rose in March up to 93.65% meaning that the sellers gave away only about 6.5% of their expected sales price compared to the 88% mark of the previous month and it took on average only 70 Days for those sellers to get an acceptable price.
During the month of March an amazing 153 Home Estate/PUDs came on the market with a Median List Price of $1,399,000 and an Average List Price of $2,242,677. The Median List Price of those 153 New Listings is about $250,000 above what the Median Sales Price of the 67 Homes that closed escrow, which opens up a considerable gap between what people are willing to pay and what people want for their homes.
During March we saw 74 Home Estate/PUDs enter escrow with a Median List Price of $1,050,000 and an Average List Price of $1,513,329. These 74 homes replace the 67 that closed escrow which means we’re seeing just slightly more homes going pending than are closing escrow and when you figure in the Fall Through rate it means that the month will be about a wash.
Looking at the numbers Year over Year shows us that the overall Inventory of Total Active Listings for the year is up about 10% but the New Listings that came on the market this year is almost exactly where it was last year. The Median List Price is also almost exactly where it was in ’07 but the numbers of sold properties has dipped by about 41%. That huge rush of activity which happened in the first 2 quarters of last year really warp the comparisons to this year’s numbers but interestingly enough the Median Sales Price for ’08 is up about 6% rising to $1,197,500. When you take Montecito and Hope Ranch out of the mix however that median sales number goes down to $892,500. This is a decline of about 9% compared to last year. The comparison becomes even more dramatic when you look at the ’07 Average Sales Price of $1,992,449 compared to the ’08 number of $2,150,696, which is a rise of about 8%. But, when you take Hope Ranch and Montecito out of the mix the Average Sales Price declines by about 23% for ’08 down to $1,244,546.
As of the end of March from Carpinteria to Goleta there were 546 Home Estate/PUDs on the market with a Median List Price of $1,599,000 and an Average List Price of $3,017,979. The inventory has definitely been expanding since the first of the year and the gap between both the Average and Median List Prices and Sales Prices is widening. Currently the Average Days on the Market for those 546 homes is 120 Days compared to the 70 Days it took for the homes that closed escrow to get an accepted offer.
At this time the Home Estate market is moving forward slightly but not at the hoped for pace that showed up at the end of February. There are some of what could be termed bargains in town but those are predominantly in the sub $1 million range.
Looking at the condo market, the hoped for surge during the month of February also did not come to fruition. We saw 23 condos close escrow during March with a Median Sales Price of $575,000 and an Average Sales Price of $701,413. It took an average of 78 Days for the condo sellers to get an accepted offer and they had to give up more than 10% of their asking price when the Sales Price to Original List Price Radio dipped to 89.49%.
During the month 65 new condo listings came on the market with a Median List Price of $575, 000, which matches exactly the Median Sold Price of the homes that closed escrow.
The disappointing news for the month comes in the pending number, which fell to 19. With sales coming in at 23 and condos entering escrow falling to 19 it looks like the condo market is still having a rough time. The interesting figure for the homes entering escrow is that the Median List Price for those properties was $629,000 or about $50,000 above the condos that closed.
The overall inventory when compared to ’07 is down about 7% and the new condos that came on the market this year are down by about 14%. The Median List Price has declined by about 5% Year Over Year but the number of properties that entered escrow is off 35% with the number that has closed escrow down by 38%.
Despite the huge drop in numbers of sales the Median Sales Price for ’08 is only down 2.4% and the Average Sales Price is down by 5.4%, and amazingly enough without the Montecito Condos in the mix the average sales price is up by 1.1%. Even though the inventory overall is down it took a huge surge in March up to 251 units from the February number of 181.
The condo market is still in the doldrums with banks requiring more from a buyer than they have required in previous years. In time this will be a good thing because you will have a stronger group of owners with firmer financial footing. But until we get to that place it could continue to be tough for the condo buyer.
In the Santa Barbara area from Carpinteria to Goleta the market is not surging forward, but it’s also not declining and it’s definitely in better shape than most of the rest of the country. For those with good credit it remains a good time to buy with inventories moving upward and the interest rates remaining down particularly in the Home Estate/PUD market where there are opportunities that we’ve haven’t seen in about a decade.
Gary Woods
Posted by gandlwoods at April 8, 2008 10:05 AM