Looking at the Home Estate/PUD market for the Santa Barbara Real Estate area including Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate and Goleta Real Estate April ’08 looks a lot like March ’08 with a few differences. The numbers of sales for both months shows about a 10% increase in April from what we saw in March but the Median Sales Price is very close for both months showing only a minor fluctuation.
The Median Sales Price bounces around a lot from month to month but the current mark of close to $1 million means that there have been a substantial number of properties sold below $1 million. Slightly fewer than half the homes sold for April were below $1 million and about a third of the homes were between $1 and $2 million. We saw slightly fewer homes sell in the $2 million and up market but still there were a significant number of homes that closed over $5 million. This compares to the March numbers of 39 of the 67 sold properties closing below $1 million, 19 closing from $1 to $2 million and 19 at $2 million and up.
The Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio took a dive in April dipping below the 93.65% number of March. This dip shows more of a willingness on the part of sellers to come down in their hoped for price. During the month sellers gave away about 11% of the price they would have liked to have seen.
There are a couple of numbers that jump out at me. First is Days on the Market which is the amount of time it takes to get an accepted offer. In April that number was almost at the 100 day level which means it took almost a month longer for a deal to be hammered out as opposed to the March number of 70 days. A lot of factors could explain this longer period. The two factors I think are the most prevalent are 1.lenders are definitely taking a longer time to decide whether they are going to fund a sale and 2.with the increased inventory there are a lot more choices for buyers to consider.
The second number that jumps out at me is the numbers of homes that went into escrow during the month. About 25% more properties went pending in April when compared to March. To expand on that number, the Median List Price for those homes in escrow took a big jump of over a quarter of a million dollars in April. Again, these Median Sales and Median List Prices bounce around a lot, but the raw numbers tell us that more homes farther up the price scale are selling.
A couple of numbers which remained constant for both March and April were the numbers of new listings that came on the market and the overall inventory of Home Estate/PUDs. Over 150 new homes entered the marketplace for both months and the total inventory from Carpinteria to Goleta remains at about 550 as of the end of both months. Now you may ask, how can there be over 150 homes coming on the market for 2 months in a row and the total inventory remains the same? The simple answer is “New” isn’t always new. New could be a listing that was previously listed by another agent and expired or was cancelled and then brought back on with a new Multiple Listing Service number but with that said, we are still definitely seeing a lot of new homes coming on the market.
Looking at the Home Estate/PUD market through the end of April ’08 there are some encouraging signs. The rise in the numbers of properties entering escrow is definitely encouraging and the amount of activity below $1 million is helpful. With the new higher FHA loan maximums coming on line this could be a very opportune time for buyers in the $600,000 to $800,000 range to finally be able to purchase a home. More activity in this area would continue to move the market forward.
For condominiums in the Santa Barbara area the figures for April ’08 are similar to those of the previous month. The numbers of sales is almost exactly what they were in March but the Median Sales Price has risen slightly. Interestingly enough, while the Median Sales Price has risen the Sales Price to Original List Price ratio has dropped by a couple of percentage points. This means that the sellers are still bringing their properties on the market at a higher price point then dropping that price down to where their condo will sell.
The encouraging number that jumps out at me is an almost 50% rise in the numbers of condos that have gone into escrow for April. To achieve that substantial gain the sellers had to settle for slightly less money than the amount agreed to in March, but a big jump in activity is definitely heartening.
To expand on the rise of activity we see that the Days on the Market for the Sold condos was substantially over 100 for April but the Days on the Market for the Condos entering escrow in April was just over 2 months. Combining the numbers of escrows with the decrease in Days on the Market looks like a substantial surge for the condo market. Hopefully this surge will continue to where we will see the same or higher monthly sales figures than we’ve experienced for the past few years. The surge started in February then fell back in March, but maybe this time it will continue.
Most of the condo sales for April were below the $700,000 mark but there were a few in the $1 million range and 1 over $4 million. Condo prices overall have dropped only about 4% year over year but there are some that have come down at a much greater rate. The Montecito area still lags substantially from the pace that was set in ’07, but the condos that have sold in Montecito have had a higher Median Sales Price than what we experienced last year.
This drop in the year over year numbers of sales is not confined to Montecito however. Sales are off about 25% in Carpinteria/Summerland, 50% East of State St, 33% West of State St, 18% in Goleta South and 44% in Goleta North. Even if what we’ve seen in April is a real surge it will take a while to pick up lost ground for the year.
I’m feeling a lot less sure about the condo market than I do about the Home Estate market. Traditionally the condos lead the way in the market place but currently it’s being lead by Single Family Home sales. If the surge we see in condos going into escrow in April holds up it could be a real stabilizing factor in the overall Santa Barbara Real Estate market. Until then as I’ve been saying all year, whatever is happening in Santa Barbara is a whole lot better than what is happening in the rest of the country.
Posted by gandlwoods at May 6, 2008 07:33 AM