For May of 2008 for Santa Barbara Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate and Goleta Real Estate the Home Estate/PUD sales have fallen slightly from the April numbers. The huge surge of activity we saw in April where more properties went into escrow than in April of the previous year has failed to generate a surge in sales for May. Whether this is because the pending escrows of April are still pending or whether they have fallen out of escrow remains to be seen but at this point the surge seems to have mellowed. The numbers of pending Home Estates in May has also fallen back from the April totals. In May escrows are down about 20% from the April figure.
The one constant is the Median Sales Price which still hovers right around the $1.2 million mark. $1.2 million is also about the Median List Price of homes that went into escrow in May meaning that the median sales price should continue at the same level. The Sales Price to Original List Price ratio climbed slightly in May to about the mid 90% mark up from April meaning the sellers are getting closer to what they would like to receive from the buyers, and the Days on the Market remain constant in the low 90s.
Astoundingly, about 150 Home Estate/PUDs again showed up as New Listings for the month of May. Unfortunately the Median List Price of those approximately 150 new listings was about $300,000 greater than the Median Sales Price of the homes that closed escrow. The overall inventory in May continues to get larger with new listings coming on the market and the lack of an equal number of sales. For the Home Estate inventory the Median List Price hovers around the $1.6 million mark and the Days on the Market is over 100.
Looking at the districts around town we see that in the Carpinteria/Summerland area, sales of Home Estate/PUDs are down about 20% year over year and the Median Sales Price has dropped from about $1.6 million for ’07 to about $1 million for ‘08.
For Montecito the sales are also down about 20% but both the Median and Average Sale prices have soared. Currently the Median Sales price is about $3.7 million for the area and the Average is about $4.7 million.
The East of State St area is a Tale of Two Numbers. The numbers of sales is down by almost half but the Median Sales Price has barely budged. At this point sellers on the East Side are holding their ground.
On the West Side of Santa Barbara there’s a similar story. The sales are down but not nearly as far down as those numbers on the East Side and the Median Sales Price has hardly moved. Currently as far as the Home Estate/PUD market is concerned for downtown Santa Barbara, sales are off but values are remaining basically constant.
In Hope Ranch sales for ’08 started with a bang but have slowed dramatically falling about 24% below the ’07 pace. The Median Sales Price has dropped by about $1 million and the Average Sales Price has dropped about $2 million. Currently the Median Sales Price is about $2.4 million and the Average Sales Price is about $3.1 million so neither number is really low.
In the Goleta South area sales are below the ’07 figures but not nearly as far down as other areas. The Median Sales Price has dropped about $80,000 for the area which is about the same drop experienced for the Average Sales Price. The sellers have stiffened in their prices which are displayed in the mid 90% number of Sales Price to List Price ratio so consequently sales have fallen back slightly from the April number.
For Goleta North sales are almost exactly where they were last year at this time but the Median Sales Price has dropped about $175,000. The gap is even wider for the Average Sales Price which is down about $300,000.
The Goleta area benefited significantly from the rise in price during ’04 and ’05 and has decided to give back some of that increased valuation in order to sell whereas the downtown Santa Barbara area has not lowered their prices significantly consequently fewer homes have sold. The real anomaly is Montecito where the prices have risen substantially but the sales have fallen back about 20%.
For the condo market in Santa Barbara through May ’08 the news continues to be not too encouraging. The sales numbers for the month even fell back from where they were in April. The almost 30 condo escrows that were opened in April gave us only about 20 sales for May. Just like with Home Estates, we’ll have to see whether this means that the escrows have fallen apart or are still pending. What we know for sure is that the numbers of escrows for May is a whole lot closer to 20 than to 30.
The Median Sales Price still hovers around the $600,000 with Average Sales Price about $75,000 higher. And just as with Home Estates the Median List Price of the condos that entered escrow is just about right at the level of the sales for the previous month meaning that as far as price is concerned things are going to stay right about where they’ve been.
The numbers of new condos coming on the market for May dropped by about half from the previous month but there are still over 50 new listings that came on the market. The Median List Price of new properties is about $50,000 over the current Median Sales Price meaning that the sellers haven’t quite come to grips with the realities of the marketplace. Once the condos are on the market the sellers have come down in their price by about 11% which is displayed in the Sales Price to Original List Price ratio, but even this decline has not spurred sales.
Looking at the districts, we see that sales in Carpinteria/Summerland have declined by about 20% and the Median Sales Price has dropped by about $100,000. The Average Sales Price has declined by about $60,000 however, but the number that jumps out at me is the 86.4% sales price to original list price ratio. This means that sellers have given up about 15% of their desired price and still sales have not risen.
In Montecito, sales of condos almost doubled in May over those of the previous 6 months and the Median Sales Price is up by about $400,000. So just like with Home Estate numbers sales are down and prices are up. We’ve got ourselves a real anomaly.
On the East Side things have gone from bad to worse in the Condo market. Sales have dropped by more than half but unlike Home Estate value condo prices have fallen over $100,000 for the area.
On the West Side the sales are not down nearly as far and the Median Sales Price is almost exactly where it was last year. Even more interesting is the fact that the Average Sales Price is above the ’07 number. This rise in the Average is due several large sales in the area which have brought up that number.
Out in Goleta South the numbers of Condo sales is only slightly behind the ’07 numbers but the Median Sales Price has dropped by about $100,000. Interestingly the Average Sales Price is actually above the ’07 Average at this time.
Finishing up in Goleta North we see that the sales have dropped by almost half and the Median Sales Price has fallen about $50,000. The Average Sales Price has declined at about the same level so the whole area has declined pricewise.
For condos in the Santa Barbara it’s just a tough time. I think it will take more stability in the financial markets for this segment of the market to move forward.
Gary Woods