For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area from Goleta Real Estate to Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate as well as Montecito Real Estate and Hope Ranch Real Estate for Home Estate/PUDs the numbers of sales remained at about the 70 level for the month of August ’08 and the median sales price continued in the mid $900,000 range. We saw about 4% more sales this month compared to July ’08 and about 8% fewer pending properties but the properties that did go into escrow in August had a median list price right about at the $900,000 range just as they did in July.
Looking at August ’07 we see that there were 86 Home Estate/PUD sales which is about 20% higher than what we experienced in August ’08 and the median sales price has declined about 24% from the ’07 number. Stepping back a little bit and looking at the period from Jan. 1 to August 31 for ’08 we see that there are about 24% fewer sales this year compared to last year and the median sales price has declined about 14%.
Breaking out the various districts for the Santa Barbara area, sales in the Carpinteria/Summerland area remain sluggish and are down about 26% with the median sales price down by about 18%. In Montecito sales are down by about 24% but the median sales price has risen by almost 30%.
East of State St has seen sales fall by about 33% but the median sales price has declined only about 11% while the West of State St district has seen a 32% decline in the numbers of sales but only about a 7.5% drop in the median sales price.
Hope Ranch has had a particularly tough year with sales declining by about 50% and the median sales price falling by almost 27% down to approximately $2.6 million. In the Goleta South area of Santa Barbara sales are lower than they were in ’07 for the first time this year. Currently sales have fallen by about 7% below the ’07 figures and the median sales price is down by about 13%. Finally, in the Goleta North area of Santa Barbara sales are down about 4% while the median sales price has declined by about 10%.
Looking at the entire area the price range numbers for August remain about the same as they were in July with the hot market continuing to be in the $550,000 to about $900,000 range. There was more activity from $1 to $2 million than in the previous month and above $2 million there were slightly more sales than last month with the above $3.5 million sector accounting for only about 8% of the sales down from about 15% of the market in July.
To place what’s been going on into context I thought I’d quote from an email I received. The email contained “The Goldman Report” dated September 3, 2008 and I got the author’s permission to quote from it. The part of the report I found particularly interesting is where he talked about what has been going on in Marin County. The numbers he cites closely resemble what has been going on in Santa Barbara. Mr. Goldman said, “In Marin where 33% of the active inventory is in contract in the 0-$750K category while $750-1 million is at 20%, $1-2 million is at 15%, $2-4 million at 18% and above $4 million at 5%.”
For the condo market the surge in sales we experienced in July did not hold up in August. In July we had 31 sales and in August the number is closer to 20 which is where it has been for most of the year. The median sales price for August remained at about the same level seen in July which was approximately $580,000 as did the numbers of properties that went into escrow which was approximately 40. The median list price of properties entering escrow also stayed about the same hovering in the $500,000 range.
Looking at the year over year numbers, condo sales have fallen by about 35% but the median sales prices have come down only about 7%. The numbers of new condos coming on the market has fallen dramatically in the past year. In August ’07 543 new listings had appeared with a median list price of $645,000 and this year through August only 490 new condo listings have shown up with a median list price of $619,000.
Breaking out the condo numbers for the Santa Barbara area in Carpinteria/Summerland sales are down by about 50% with the median sales price falling by about 15%. In Montecito sales are down by almost 32% but the median sales price is only down 6.3%.
On the East Side of Santa Barbara sales have dipped about a third from ’07 but the median sales price has fallen only 11.3%. On the West Side of town sales are down about 27% but the median sales price is off by only about 10%.
Out in the Goleta South area of Santa Barbara condo sales are down about 23% but the median sales price is up by 10%. Finally in the Goleta North area of Santa Barbara sales are down by over 28% and the median sales price has dipped by about 13%.
Looking at the price range statistics for condos sold in August ’08 we see that about a third of the properties sold for less than $500,000, about half sold between $500,000 and $1 million with about 15% of the properties selling above $1 million.
Finishing up I’d like to again quote from “The Goldman Report” when he talks about activity in the marketplace and what’s been going on at open houses in the Bay Area. “Buyers continue to frequent open homes like fishermen throwing their lines into different parts of the stream looking for that big one – in this case the super value property. Open home activity picked up during this report period. Many of the opens had double digit attendance and one in Greenbrae had close to 100 buyers.” This statement echoes what I hear when I speak to the various offices. There definitely seem to be buyers out there looking for “that big one.” Agents tell me about buyers coming back multiple times to a property but so far all that looking has not been translated into a surge of activity in the marketplace.
What it will take to have buyers stop kicking the tires and start writing offers is difficult to say. Prices seem to have stabilized somewhat and there have been hints that interest rates might start to rise which might stir some action. Whether buyers are waiting to see what happens with the elections or some other sign to appear is unclear. What is clear is this is the point in ’07 where the market started to change so the year over year numbers if they remain the same are going to start looking better when compared to last year.
Gary Woods