This is an analysis of Santa Barbara Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate Goleta Real Estate from January to March of 2009. March ’09 had about the same number of Home Estate/PUD sales as we saw in February ‘09. Generally by this time in the year we see an upswing in closed sales but so far ’09 has started out not quite as robust as we had hoped. The median sales price rose in March however but that brought it up to the mid to low $800,000s from the low $700,000s of the previous month. What fell was the Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio. That number flirted with a sub 80% performance meaning that buyers were demanding and receiving substantially below what sellers would have liked to have gotten for their homes.
Another number which rose for March ’09 was the pending listings which were about 15% above the same time last year. The properties that went into escrow in March of this year were across a wide price spectrum with a substantial number coming in above $1 million and even some above $5 million but the median list price for homes that went into escrow in March was in the mid $800,000 range which means that the median sold price of $850,000 should remain about the same for the next month or so. Even with a lower price point more homes entering escrow should mean more homes closing escrow in the next few months than we’ve seen earlier in the year so prospects are starting to brighten for the Home Estate/PUD market in the Santa Barbara area.
There were almost 200 new listings that came on the market in March which was about 25% higher than the same time period last year but the median list price at which they came on was about 50% higher than the median sold price of the homes that closed escrow. At the end of March there were about 600 Homes available for purchase from Carpinteria to Goleta and because a substantial number of homes which came on the market were in Montecito, Hope Ranch and the nicer sections of Santa Barbara the median list price for the overall inventory is about $1.9 million with an average list price of about $3.8 million.
Looking at the Districts, for Carpinteria/Summerland sales are about half of what they were last year with the median sales price hovering about $600,000 which is approximately 35% below last year’s mark. In Montecito sales are a little bit better than half of what they were last year with the median sales price down by about $1.5 million giving us a $2.3 million median sales price. The East Side of Santa Barbara has almost exactly the same numbers of sales as the previous year but the median sales price is about 20% down to about $970,000. On the West Side sales are still ahead of last year but the median sales price is about 15% down to about $755,000. In Hope Ranch the sales are about one third of what they were last year but the median sales price is down by only about $100,000 to about $2.36 million. Goleta South has about the same numbers of sales with the median sales price down about $70,000 to about a $700,000 median sales price and Goleta North also has about the same numbers of sales with the median sales price off by about $150,000 to about a $700,000 median sales price.
At this point a lot of the inventory that was priced from $500,000 to $800,000 has been purchased so if the market is going to continue forward the impetus needs to come from the $1 to $2 million buyers. Money is available at great rates for well qualified buyers and the inventory is in place so we’ll have to see whether there’s sufficient confidence from the $1 million plus buyer to start the local Real Estate market moving forward again.
For the condo market in Santa Barbara the numbers of sales is starting to move forward but very incrementally. We went from 10 sales in February to the mid teens in March which compares to March ’08 when we had 25 sales. The median sales price for the month continues to hover around $500,000 which is a drop of about $62,000 from March ’08 but remaining stable for both years is the Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio which has been holding right around 90%.
What moved forward in March was the number of condos that went into escrow. For ’09 there were close to 30 condos entering escrow compared to ’08 when there were about half that number. While the escrows pile up this month, the median list price of those escrows has dropped about $140,000 from the median list price of escrows in March’08. But, just as we said with the Home Estate market, more escrows should be mean more sales even though the price point is somewhat lower.
Unlike the Home Estate market the numbers of new listings has not surged forward from last year. In fact that number is almost exactly what it was at this time last year despite a slight rise in the median list price for the condos that came on the market this year. The overall inventory for condos remains at about 200 for the month of March with a median list price of about $629,000 and an average list price of right around $900,000.
Looking at the Districts, Carpinteria/Summerland has enjoyed a surge of sales over the ’08 number with the median sales price dropping only about $35,000 to about a $436,000 median sales price. If this trend continues it could end up being a good year for this district’s condo market. In Montecito however the condo drought continues with no sales and only 1 escrow opened with a $729,000 list price. At this time last year in Montecito there had been 3 sales with a median sales price of $1.75 million and 3 escrows opened. The high end condo market has almost completely disappeared for now.
East of State St has seen about a 50% decline in the numbers of sales in ’09 with a drop of over $100,000 to about $575,000 in the median sales price whereas on the West Side of Santa Barbara sales are only down by a couple while the median sales price has slid about $80,000 to about a $520,000 median sales price. It’s interesting that both for Home Estates and Condos the West Side is outpacing the performance of the East Side.
For Goleta South the sales are about one third of what they were last year but that’s more an issue of the inventory which has fallen dramatically for the area. Last year there was a new condo development which did very well for both sales prices and numbers of units sold. For Goleta North up until March things were really dismal but the area rebounded nicely and currently is only a couple of sales behind last year’s numbers of units sold and only about $10,000 below the median sales price which is currently about $460,000.
I’m encouraged by the numbers of escrows opened in March ’09 for both Home Estate/PUDs and Condos. While the price point is overall lower than where it was last year at this time the buyers are starting to show a confidence in the market which hopefully will carry us forward into the year.
Gary Woods