Through the month of April ’09 for the Home Estate/PUD market for the Santa Barbara Real Estate area including Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate and Goleta Real Estate many of the escrows that had been building up during the previous months started to close. While it wasn’t a tidal wave of closings it was definitely more activity than we’ve seen in the previous 3 months. For April the completed escrows were in the mid to high 60’s compared to April ’08 when there were 77 sales.
The median sales price for April rose slightly from the previous month but was still in the low to mid $800,000 range. This compares to April ’08 when the median sales price was $1,170,000. What’s important to note is that does not mean that the $1.17 million house that sold in April ’08 is now worth about $850,000. But it does mean that the house purchased last year is worth less than it was last year.
The numbers of Home Estate/PUDs that went pending in April was about 10% higher than what we saw in March and the median list price for those pended properties was about $50,000 above the previous month’s figure of $849,000 which means that the median sold price should start to come up. Also rising up in April was the sales price to original list price ratio which went from the high 70% range in March to the mid to high 80% level in April.
The inventory also continued to grow throughout the month and is about 10% above where it was in March now standing at the mid 600 level. The median list price for those listed properties fell slightly but the difference between the median list price and median sales price for April still resides at about $900,000.
Looking at the districts through April ’09 we see that Carpinteria/Summerland is slightly behind the numbers of homes sold at this time last year but the median sales price is down about $250,000 from ’09 to approximately a $634,000 median. For Montecito sales are starting to come up but they’re still about 40% down from where they were last year with the median sales price falling by about $1.3 million to the current median price of about $2.3 million.
Sales for the East of State St areas are about where they were last year but the median sales price is down about $250,000 from ’08 to about a $950,000 median. On the West Side sales are also about where they were last year with the median sales price falling about $180,000 to about a $750,000 median. In Hope Ranch sales are about half of what they were last year but the median sales price is actually up slightly to about a $2.55 million median.
For Goleta South the sales are about where they were last year but the median sales price has fallen about $100,000 to about a $680,000 median and Goleta North is slightly above the ’08 sales figures but the median sales price is down roughly $115,000 to about a $715,000 median.
It looks like homes are starting to move in most areas of town except for Montecito and Hope Ranch which lag. Sales in both Goleta North and South should start to slow however because the inventory has fallen in those areas but sales should start to come up for both the East and West of State St areas of Santa Barbara because of the increased inventory there. Unless there is another big wave of foreclosures that are dumped on the market I think we’re currently at the bottom of the price swing at least for the sub million dollar market, but prices are still resetting above $1 million.
For condos, just like with Home Estate/PUD properties there have been a lot of escrows piling up for the first few months and now they’re starting to close. We’ve finally broken into the 20s for closings for 1 month after being in the teens and single digits earlier in the year, but the median sales price dropped to about the mid $500,000 level for April ’09 compared to $610,450 in April ’08.
This decline can be attributed to almost a complete lack of activity for higher priced condos. There has been only one condo sale in Montecito all year with that property selling for $679,000 and there have been only a handful of sales over $700,000 throughout the rest of the area.
The numbers of pending properties rose in April however by about 30% from the March numbers but the median list price for those condos that entered escrow fell to the low $400,000 range. Comparing April ’09 to April ’08 the pending numbers are up about 35% while the median list price for those pending condos has declined by about $200,000 to the $400,000 range. I see that as more of a shift in the type of condo that’s selling rather than a dramatic drop in the price of a condo. But the sales price of condos has declined year over year, it just hasn’t fallen by as big a margin as would be ascertained from a drop of about $600,000 to $400,000 in the median list price of pended properties.
The inventory also declined slightly from March to April while the median list price for the inventory stayed stable at about $600,000. There were only a little over 40 new listings that came on the market for the month and the median list price for those new listings was in the low $400,000 range. That means that the condos coming on the market in April actually had a median list price below the median sales price of the condos that sold last month.
Looking at the Districts we see that Carpinteria/Summerland has experienced about the same numbers of sales that occurred last year at this time but the median sales price has dipped about $110,000 to the current approximately $390,000 median. As I said Montecito has experienced only 1 sale this year down from 4 last year and that sale was for $679,000 compared to last year when the median sales price was $2.1 million.
East of State St has a little over half the numbers of sales compared to ’08 and the median sales price has fallen about $170,000 to the current median of approximately $550,000. West of State St is only a few sales behind where it was last year at this time and the median sales price has slipped only $20,000 down to about a $525,000 median.
For Goleta South sales are down by half but that’s more a function of a drastically reduced inventory. Even with fewer condos to sell however the median sales price has come down about $215,000 to the current median of almost $400,000. Goleta North on the other hand has rebounded nicely from a slow start and is now at about the same sales level as last year. Even so the median sale price has declined about $120,000 and now resides at about a $380,000 median.
The condo market is starting to rebound because the lower priced single family homes that were available in Goleta and Carpinteria are basically gone at this time making condos look more attractive as an entry level purchase. Unless there are a lot of new foreclosures put up for sale the condo market should continue to move forward with prices starting to stabilize.
Gary Woods