For May of 2009 for Santa Barbara Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate and Goleta Real Estate the Home Estate/PUD sales should have been more robust for the month because of the almost 90 properties that went into escrow in April but the total number of homes that closed escrow in May slid into the 50s after being in the 60s the previous month. There were some closings that were delayed due to the fire but whether that’s the reason that sales didn’t reach the expected level or the reason is that homes are taking longer to close escrow due to financing or because a substantial number of homes entering escrow are short sales is unclear at this time.
The median sales price continues to crawl upward but still remains below $900,000 for May while the numbers of Home Estate/PUDs entering escrow is at about the same rate we saw in April when almost 90 listings started the buying process. The median list price for those properties entering escrow also continues to slide up and is almost at the $900,000 level but when you look at the Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio for May of around 80% you can see that the closing price on those almost 90 escrows will be farther down into the $800,000 to $850,000 range rather than closer to $900,000.
The inventory of available properties is slowing and actually declined from April to May with the median list price for the overall inventory still hovering around the $1.8 million range and the average listing price topping $3.5 million. This disparity between the median sales price and median list price primarily tells you that the homes that were listed below $1 million and especially those in the $500,000 to $800,000 range have been sold and are out of the inventory and the properties that remain are farther up on the price scale.
Looking at the districts, we see that for the Home Estate/PUD market sales in Carpinteria/Summerland after starting the year way behind are about 20% below where they were last year with the median sales price down by about $360,000 to a $634,000 median. In Montecito sales remain at about half of what they were last year with the median price dropping by about $1.3 million this year down to the current $2.4 million median sales price.
For the East Side of Santa Barbara sales are almost exactly where they were last year after lagging for most of the year but the median sales price is down about $200,000 to a $920,000 median. Over on the West Side after being ahead of the ’08 sales pace for most of the year sales have fallen back slightly to below the ’08 level with the median sales price down by about $125,000 from a year ago to a $775,000 median.
Sales in Hope Ranch are down by about 40% from where they were last year but the median sales price is up about $150,000 to $2.556 million. For Goleta South sales are almost equal to what they were last year but the median sales price has fallen about $80,000 to the current number of $700,000. For Goleta North after being ahead most of the year the sales have fallen to about 20% below the ’08 level with the median sales price down by about $90,000 to the current $716,000.
There’s a lot of activity in the Home Estate/PUD market with a significant number of homes entering escrow. With this increased activity home sales prices are also sliding up but not much at this time. With properties entering escrow at a greater rate than what we saw in ’08 the numbers of closings should start to come closer to the previous year’s mark.
For the condo market in Santa Barbara for the month of May ’09 the sales are about where they were in April hovering around the mid 20s’. This means that the sales level has returned to about where it was last year at this time when for quarters 2 and 3 we had between 25 and 30 sales a month. With the increase in the numbers of sales the median sales price is also moving up to just below $500,000 for the month of May.
The numbers of condo escrows that opened in May is above the April level with the median list price for those newly opened escrows also rising to about the $490,000 range. Unlike the Home Estate/PUD Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio which is in the 80s the Condo Ratio is closer to the 90s which means that the condo sales price should continue to slide upward.
With the decrease in the $500,000 to $800,000 Home Estate/PUD inventory condos have all of a sudden become the hot ticket. The rise in the median sales price of condos is due to the lack of inventory which has started to fall. This fall is more pronounced than what is occurring in the Home Estate/PUD market which has only started to drop from April to May. It remains to be seen whether the condo momentum can be maintained because the new listings that are coming on the market are pushing the median list prices higher.
Looking at the districts it’s interesting to see that in Carpinteria/Summerland the condo sales are almost exactly where they were last year despite a dramatic fall in the number of available units but the median sales price has declined by about $120,000 down to $395,000. In Montecito there has been only 1 sale this year for $679,000 compared to last year when there were 7 sales with a $1.75 million median.
For East of State St we’ve had a real increase in activity and currently the numbers of sales is almost exactly where it was last year at this time. To achieve that amount of activity the median sales price has dropped about $170,000 down to $528,000. The West Side of town has also experienced almost exactly the same numbers of sales as last year but the anomaly over there is that the median sales price has actually gone up about $6,000 to $520,000.
For Goleta South it’s been a tough year for sales with around 20 closings compared to last year when there were around 30 closed escrows. The problem is exacerbated when we see that the median sales price has also fallen dramatically from about $615,000 to about $410,000. For Goleta North the numbers of sales is almost exactly what it was last year but the median sales price has dropped about $150,000 down to $340,000.
The condo market in Santa Barbara is finally moving forward with the numbers of sales about equaling the numbers of the past 2 corresponding months of the previous year. Currently the median sales price is moving upward so we’ll have to see whether that momentum can be sustained.
If there aren’t a whole new round of single family foreclosures that get dumped on the market condos should continue to sell at their present level or even move up with the median sales price also rising somewhat because currently the numbers of escrows opened in ’09 is about 40% above the number opened in ’08. But if there are a great number of low priced single family homes that come on the market in the next few months the condo market will probably start to falter.
Gary Woods