For September ’09 examining the Home Estate/PUD market for Santa Barbara Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate and Goleta Real Estate we see that sales once again climbed into the 80+ range just as they did in June and July after dipping down to the high 60s in August. But, while the numbers of sales rose the median sales price continued to decline. It went from around $880,000 in July down to about $830,000 in August and for September has slid into the mid $700,000 range.
This decline in the median sales price is somewhat surprising because the median list price for the properties that went into escrow in August was right around $1 million. The further decline in the median sales price can be explained at least somewhat when you look at the Sales Price to Original List Price ratio which for September hovered right around the mid 80% level and was in the low 80% range in August. The numbers of homes that went into escrow for September remained in the low 90s range with the median list price for those homes that entered escrow hovering around the $900,000 mark.
The inventory continues to trickle down in the area with available properties from Carpinteria to Goleta numbering below 600. The median list price for those properties continues to be about $1.8 million meaning that the gulf between the median sales price of about $750,000 and the median list price of $1.8 million continues to grow.
Looking at the Districts we see that sales in Carpinteria/Summerland remain about 15% ahead of last year with the median sales price dropping about $180,000 to the current level of around $690,000. In Montecito sales remain about 25% below where they were last year and the median sales price is down about $900,000 to approximately $2.6 million.
For the East Side of State St in Santa Barbara the sales are about 5% ahead of where they were last year but the median sales price is down about $225,000 to around $900,000. On the West Side of town the sales are also up about 5% with the median sales price also declining in the $200,000 range to about $730,000.
Hope Ranch continues to slide backward as far as sales are concerned compared to ’08 when there were 16 sales through September. This year the 1st 9 months have seen 11 sales and the median sales price has fallen about $500,000 to around $2.2 million.
For Goleta South sales are almost exactly where they were last year with the median sales price falling by about $50,000 down to around $700,000 and finally Goleta North is also almost exactly where it was last year as far as sales are concerned with the median sales price dropping about $150,000 down to approximately $700,000.
A couple of things that could be driving the market right now are the “First Time Buyer Tax Credit” which is coming to an end shortly and the $729,000 FHA maximum loan which is up for renewal and may not be around for much longer. An interesting phenomenon that’s occurring with the increase in homes going into escrow is the number of multiple offers coming in for some properties and of particular note is the number of all cash offers that are showing up. It could be that people are uneasy about the stock market or the banking system and are looking for a “safer” place to put their money.
For the Condo market in September sales once again were in the 30 range but unlike the Home Estate/PUD market which has seen a decline in the median sales price condos have seen an increase up to around $500,000 for the month. In July the median sales price was around $480,000 then it fell to about $430,000 in August and is now pushing forward again up to that approximately $500,000 level in September. This rise in the median sales price can be attributed primarily to the lack of inventory accompanied by an increased demand. Basic economics dictate that when there is less of something and more people want that product prices go up.
To further emphasize the upward pressure in condo prices the Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio for September went to the high 80% level after residing in the high 70% level in August and the Sales Price to List Price Ratio which is the final asking price compared to the sales price rose to the mid 90% level.
September was the second month in a row that saw 40 some condos go into escrow. The median list price on those properties remained around $460,000 so we’ll have to see whether this will continue to push the median sales price upward.
There were about 55 new listings that came on the market during September with a median list price of about $490,000 but the overall inventory continued slide down maintaining the trend of the last 6 months. At this time there are below 150 condos from Carpinteria to Goleta for sale which is below where the inventory was in December ’08.
Looking at the Districts we see that Carpinteria/Summerland in ’09 has sales that are about 60% ahead of where they were last year but the median sales price is about $40,000 lower currently hovering around $410,000. Montecito is the one area that is underperforming compared to the previous year as far as sales are concerned. There have only been 4 sales compared to 14 in ’08 and the median sales price has gone down from about $1.37 million to around $700,000.
For the East Side of State St in Santa Barbara sales are basically where they were last year but the median sales price has fallen approximately $100,000 down to around $530,000. The West Side is ahead of the ’08 sales level by about 10% but the median sales price is down approximately $65,000 to $510,000.
For Goleta South sales are about 10% ahead of where they were but the median sales price has fallen approximately $130,000 to around $450,000 and finally Goleta North is about 20% ahead of the ’08 sales pace with the median sales price falling around $90,000 to about $375,000.
For the entire Santa Barbara area for the 1st 9 months of ’09 sales are up about 10% and the median sales price has dropped about $100,000 to the current level of approximately $470,000. Condos that have gone into escrow this year are up around 30% over the ’08 numbers and the Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio is down slightly from last year residing in the mid to high 80% range. The big story however remains the lack of inventory which is down about 75 properties from this time last year. With the way the condo market has been performing the only thing that could spoil the recovery would be if more condos don’t come on the market in the next few months. With the median sales price starting to come up this could be the catalyst that gets those potential condo sellers off the sidelines and into the game.
Gary Woods