For the Home Estate/PUD market in October ’09 for Santa Barbara Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate and Goleta Real Estate the sales were in low 80’s from the mid 80’s in September. Sales usually decline in the fourth quarter of the year and the good news is that there were more transactions this October compared to last October.
The median sales price took a big jump going from $750,000 in September to about $970,000 in October and the average sales price went up about $100,000 for the month to approximately $1.6 million. This rise in both the median and average sales prices was due to a decline in the numbers of sales below $1 million and an increase in the sales between $1 and $2 million. The “hot” market remains from $500,000 to $850,00 and is strong up to $1 million but there are just fewer sales in that price range while sales have risen from $1 to $2 million and also gone up slight from $2 million on up.
There were 100+ properties that came on the market for the month and for the first time in a long time the median list price for those new listings was below the median sold price for the month. The overall inventory continues to decline which usually happens in the fourth quarter but the median list price for that inventory remains at about $1.8 million.
Looking at the year over year numbers in ’09 for sales they remain behind the ’08 sales numbers but by less than 5 transactions. The median sales price for the year is still hovering around $850,000 which is about 20% below where it was last year at this time, but the numbers of homes that have gone into escrow is about 100 above where it was last year at this time. This difference between properties that have entered escrow and those that have closed escrow is due primarily to the number of “short sales” which are taking much longer to complete the buying process.
Looking at the Districts, Carpinteria/Summerland has sales up 16% for the year and the median sales price down 20% to about $675,000. For Montecito sales are down 18% with the median sales price down about 25% to $2.5 million.
Over on the East side of State St sales are up 12% but the median sales price is down 22% to $900,000 while on the West Side of town sales are up by only about 4 units with the median sales price falling by 20% to about $745,000.
In Hope Ranch sales remain about 2 behind last year with the median sales price falling by about 20% to approximately $2.35 million. For Goleta South sales are down by a couple and the median sales price is off by 5% to $700,000 and for Goleta North sales are down by 7% with the median sales price is off by 16% to $700,000.
October ’08 was the month we learned new words like TARP which means that for the rest of that year and the first part of ’09 sales were down with a continued decline in the median sales price of homes. Sales started to come back starting in the 3rd quarter of ’09 but the median sales price remains about 20% below where it was last year.
For the remainder of ’09 the sales figures should push past the ’08 numbers particularly with all the homes that remain in escrow. Below $1 million prices are stabilized for now and from $1 to $2 million they’re solidifying but above $2 million there is still settling occurring.
For the condo market in October ’09 sales remained strong and even moved ahead of the September ’09 figures. The median sales price slid below $500,000 however hovering around $460,000. Prices are definitely hardening for the condo market with the Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio right around 94% and the Sales Price to List Price Ratio only a couple of points higher at 96%. To amplify what’s going on with condos the Days on the Market for sold properties slipped to around 75 days to get an accepted offer whereas in September the Days on the Market for Sold properties were closer to 90 days meaning it took buyers about a couple of weeks less time to make up their minds.
Only about 40 properties came on the market for the month to replace the approximately 36 condos that sold but the overall inventory took a slight rise to below 150 which is still below where it was in December of ’08. The good news is that just about as many properties entered escrow as closed escrow during October. But the median list price for those condos going into escrow slid to about $415,000.
Looking at the year over year sales numbers for condos sales they are about 12% ahead of where they were last year at this time but the median sales price is about $90,000 below where it was last year currently residing at about $465,000.
With sales up 11% escrows are up about 32% to over 300. This disparity between escrows and sales is largely due, just like with Home Estate/PUDs, to the “short sales” which are still waiting in limbo for the lending institutions to approve the transactions. Once those sales are completed the sales will be substantially ahead of where we were last year at this time.
For the Districts starting with Carpinteria/Summerland sales are up 32% with the median sales price down 9% to $417,500. In Montecito there have been 6 sales this year compared to 16 last year and the median sales price has dropped about 40% to $830,000.
Over on the East Side of Santa Barbara sales are up by a couple with the median sales price down by about $90,000 to approximately $530,000. The West Side has sales up 11% with the median sales price down by 8% to $510,000.
In Goleta South sales up are 9% while the median sales price is down by 20% to about $450,000 and in Goleta North sales are up by 33% with the median sales price down by 15% to about $400,000.
Sales remain strong in October for the condo market with most of those transactions selling in the $350,000 to $700,000 range. There were only a handful of those purchases above $700,000 for the month with the highest priced condo closing for $1.4 million.
Traditionally condos lead the way in the market so continued strong sales is definitely a good sign. But, usually during this time of year the inventory continues to shrink so in order to maintain the current momentum it would be very helpful if the inventory went up instead of down for the rest of the year. Despite the lack of inventory however escrows continue to open for at least the time being as the market continues to move forward.
Gary Woods