This is an analysis of the Santa Barbara Real Estate market including Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, downtown Santa Barbara Real Estateand Goleta Real Estate through the month of November ’09. Starting with the Home Estate/PUD sector in November, sales were in the low 70s dropping from the low 80s in October. A drop in the numbers of units sold from the previous month is not alarming and can be chalked up primarily to being the end of the year when sales usually fall and don’t pick up until the second or third month of the New Year. But, the good news is that sales for November ’09 were more than double the sales that occurred in November ’08.
All of the decrease in sales from October occurred in the over $1 million category. Sales below $1 million were almost exactly where they were in the previous month but from $1 to $2 million sales fell by about one third and from $2 million on up sales dropped by about half. With the sales from $1 million down remaining stable and those above that mark dropping you would expect the median sales price to drop and it did, declining from $970,000 in October to about $750,000 in November.
Looking at the first 11 months of ’09 we see that sales finally surpassed those that occurred for the same period in ’08. Last year at this time there were about 700 Home Estate/PUD sales and this year that number is closer to 750. But, with the numbers of sales increasing the median sales price has declined about 20% from $1,055,000 through November ’08 to below $850,000 for the same period through November ’09.
This decline to approximately an $850,000 median price for the year means that the median sales price is just below where it was in November ’03 in Santa Barbara. Looking at the national data from Case-Shiller and Inman we see that locally our numbers mirror the national figures. Almost every place else in the country is at almost exactly that same ’03 median sales price level for their area and the median sales price fell by 20% from ’08 to ‘09.
Looking at the Districts we see that Carpinteria/Summerland through November ’09 is about 13.5% ahead in the numbers of sales but the median sales price has dropped about 21% to $670,000. In Montecito sales are down by 18% and the median sales price is down 20% to $2,475,000.
For the East Side of Santa Barbara sales are up about 19% but the median sales price is down approximately 20% to $900,000 and over on the West Side sales are up 12.6% but the median sales price is down about 19% to $750,000.
In Hope Ranch sales are exactly where they were last year at this time but the median sales price has fallen 16% to $2,335,000. The south side of Goleta has sales up almost 7% but the median sales price has declined by 4.2% to $700,000 and finally for Goleta North sales are up by 3% with the median sales price down by 15.4% to $704,000.
The sub $1 million market remains strong in Santa Barbara but the over $1 million market has declined from the previous month.
For the Condo segment of the market sales fell from 36 in October to about 30 for November. Again, this is not cause for alarm but just a seasonal phenomenon. Unlike the Home Estate/PUD market the median sales price rose in November from about $460,000 the previous month to approximately $475,000. The trend in condo prices has generally been up since the early part of the year but the median sales price continues to be below where it was last year at this time. The market should remain strong with almost as many condos going into escrow in November as there were those that sold.
Looking at numbers for the whole year we see that sales are up about 14% over where they were in ’08 and condos that entered escrow are up almost 35% from the previous year. But, despite the current upward pressure on the median sales price year over year the median sales price is down about 16% to $467,000.
The only thing that could prevent this surge in the numbers of condo sales from continuing is the lack of inventory which continues to go down and currently stands at around 130 units for sale from Carpinteria to Goleta. At this time in ’08 there were 611 new condo listings and this year there have been just 534. The median list price on the properties offered for sale this year has gone down about $100,000 from where it was last year which is the reason that sales have gone up. But, with sales up and listings down the inventory continues to shrink.
Examining the Price Range Statistics for the year, there have been only 16 of the 292 condos sales thus far that were $1 million or over with the highest priced condo going for $4 million. That property was right on the beach in Carpinteria/Summerland and was about $2 million above the next highest priced sale. The majority of the sales came in the $300,000 to $550,000 range with a few showing up around $120,000. The high end condo market in Santa Barbara has taken a dramatic hit in the past year and it’s difficult to put together a scenario which would have that part of the market coming back in a significant way for the next few years.
Looking at the Districts we see that condo sales in Carpinteria/Summerland are up over 30% but the median sales price has gone down 9% to $417,500. In Montecito sales are down over 40% and the median sales price has slipped 23% to $1,060,000.
Over on the East Side of Santa Barbara sales are down 6% and the median sales price is down 13% to $534,500 and the West Side of Santa Barbara has sales up 27% but the median sales price down by 6.5% to $505,000.
For Goleta South sales are up 10.5% but the median sales price is down 20% to $451,000 and for Goleta North sales are up 37% with the median sales price falling by 16% to $394,000.
The condo market should continue to surge if the inventory is there for people to purchase. With the lack of inventory prices should continue to rise with the demand for fewer and fewer properties remaining high. For the Home Estate/PUD market the demand for homes below $1 million remains strong and should continue as long as interest rates remain low.
Gary Woods