For the Home Estate/PUD market for Santa Barbara Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate, Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate and Goleta Real Estate the month of February 2010 saw sales in the mid 40s, falling from 61 in the previous month. The median sales price rose however from $760,000 in January up to around the $800,000 level.
The decline in the number of sales was primarily in the sub million dollar bracket dropping from the low 50s in that range in December 09 to the mid 40s in January and to the low 30s in February. The $1 to $2 million price range saw a rise in activity however which accounts for the median sales price going up for the month. In January there were 8 sales in that range and in February the number went up to about 11. But, the over $2 million range saw a decline in sales falling from 7 in January to around 4 sales in February with only 1 sale over $5 million.
Comparing 09 to 10 for the 1st 2 months of the year sales are up by roughly 15% but median sales price is down by about 8% falling to approximately $775,000 for the year. Sales generally lag in the 1st quarter of the year so the decline in the numbers of sales is not unusual and there is a substantial amount of activity in the marketplace with a significant number of properties going into escrow. In January there were 55 escrows opened and in February that number rose to the high 60s. The median list price on those opened escrows also rose from $825,000 in January to right about $900,000 in February.
The sales price to original list price ratio also rose for the month from 75% in January to right about 80% for February, but when you look at both months combined that ratio is right around 77% for all of 10 so far compared to 84% for the same period in 09.
Looking at the Districts, Carpinteria/Summerland this year has sales that are more than triple what they were last year at this time and the median sales price has gone up from about $590,000 in 09 to approximately $835,000 in 10. In Montecito sales are almost exactly where they were last year at this time but the median sales price has dropped about $1 million from approximately $3 million last year to about $2 million this year.
On the East Side of Santa Barbara sales are almost double where they were last year but the median sales price has dropped from $970,000 last year to about $830,000 this year. For the West Side of Santa Barbara after a big year for sales in 09, this year sales have dropped about 23% and the median sales price has fallen from $870,000 in 09 to about $740,000 in 10.
Hope Ranch had 2 sales in both years but the median sales price was $2.36 million in 09 compared to $3.58 in 10. Goleta South after a big year in 09 has fallen behind in the numbers of sales this year and the median sales price has declined from $680,000 last year to about $550,000 this year. Goleta North has also fallen behind the 09 sales pace and the median sales price has also declined but only slightly from about $690,000 last year to approximately $680,000 this year.
The decline in sales in the below $1 million range is primarily due to the lack of inventory in that range. Listings are down in every District except Goleta North which is over 25% ahead of where it was last year while Montecito is basically at the same level of inventory we experienced last year at this time. But, while the inventory continues to shrink the escrows continue to mount. Every District except Goleta South has experienced more open escrows this year than occurred last year.
The sales picture is more varied however with Carpinteria/Summerland, Montecito and East of State St having more sales this year and West of State St, Goleta South and Goleta North experiencing fewer sales in 10. The encouraging signs for the month are in the strengthening of sales between $1 and $2 million but the troublesome signs are the declining inventory in the sub $1 million range.
For the Condo Market in Santa Barbara the numbers of sales have declined for the last 5 months in a row, dropping from 27 sales in December 09 to 21 in January 10 and to the high teens for February. The reason for the fall off of sales is the lack of inventory in the all important $350,000 to $500,000 range. During the month the condo overall inventory rose to about 150 available properties but of those less than 50 were priced below $500,000 and of those approximately 50 condos about 15% were the affordable properties requiring income limitations on the buyers.
But, while the sales have declined for the past 5 months when you compare 09 to 10 for the 1st 2 months of the year the numbers of sales are almost double where we were last year and the numbers of opened escrows are up by almost 50%. But, with sales and escrows up, the median sales price declined from $478,500 last year to about $425,000 this year. Even so, the trend seems to be up with the median sales price rising in February to about $460,000 from $375,000 in January.
Looking at the Districts, Carpinteria/Summerland has a couple of more sales this year than it did last year and the median sales price is stable for both years at about $365,000. Montecito, after a dismal start last year has had 3 sales so far this year with a median sales price of $1,075,000.
East of State St has seen a big run up in sales more than doubling what occurred last year at this time but the median sales price has dropped almost in half falling from $625,000 in 09 to $323,500 in 10. It should be noted however that this big decline in the median sales price for the East of State St area is primarily because of a significant number of short sales in one particular complex. On the West Side of State St condo sales are about 2 ahead of last year but the median sales price has declined from $522,500 to about $450,000.
Goleta South has almost exactly the same numbers of sales as we saw in 09 but the median sales price has dropped from $452,000 last year to $347,500 this year and Goleta North has 4 more sales than it did last year with the median sales price holding firmly at about $460,000 for both years.
Condo sales will start to rise as we move into the second quarter and the median sales price level should continue to be around $450,000 to $475,000. In February of the 18 sales 14 were below $500,000 and of the 4 over $500,000, 2 were over $1 million. The condo market in Montecito after being very quiet for most of 09 seems to be moving forward again but 3 sales in 2 months cant be considered a huge trend. Sales in the rest of the Districts are also ahead of or equal to last years numbers.
Inventory remains the problem in the condo market. Of the approximately 150 condo listings from Carpinteria to Goleta about 50 of them or 1/3 are below $500,000 and with 75% of the sales coming from that below $500,000 segment of the market the inventory in that range continues to diminish. Despite a decline in the median sales price in January the prices seem to be basically stable and should continue that way for the foreseeable future with numbers of sales depending on whether the inventory starts expanding or continues to contract.
Gary Woods