The California housing market is poised to finish 2003 by setting new records across the board for the second consecutive year, according to C.A.R.'s "State of the Housing Market 2003" report. "The housing market in 2003 is on course to break several records that were set in 2002," said C.A.R. President Ann Pettijohn. "Sales of detached existing single-family homes are expected to exceed 2002's record-setting pace of 572,500 units, increasing 4.2 percent to 596,500 units this year. The median price will easily achieve a new high in 2003, reaching $369,500, a 17 percent increase over 2002."
The market has benefited over the past two years from the lowest mortgage rates in more than a generation, according to C.A.R. economists. Moreover, strong demand relative to supply has contributed to significant increases in the median price as the state's population has grown by 600,000 people per year, while new home production has fallen short of statewide household growth by at least 40,000 units for the past several years. Repeat homebuyers, who accounted for 70 percent of home sales in 2003, have increasingly dominated the residential real estate market, according to the report. Their market share has climbed steadily since the mid-1990s, when repeat buyers represented 50 percent of all homebuyers.
Across the state, inventory levels have been at record or near-record lows for most of the past two years, ranging between two and three and one-half months since early 2002. Time on market has ratcheted downward for eight consecutive years, and now stands at just two weeks, while the median price discount - the difference between list and sale price - was at 0.9 percent - the sixth consecutive year when the discount has been below 2 percent.
Favorable mortgage rates kept housing affordability from deteriorating throughout 2002
and the first half of 2003 despite strong price appreciation over that period. Over that time interval, the C.A.R. Housing Affordability Index hovered in the range of 30 percent, meaning that 30 percent of California households could afford to buy the median-priced home. Once mortgage rates bottomed out in mid-2003, affordability dropped below 25 percent for the first time in over a dozen years, raising concerns about access to homeownership on the part of first-time homebuying households.
Condominium sales remained strong in the third quarter, but demand for rental apartments continued to lag, according to the most recent Multifamily Market Index (MMI) report released last week by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). "Condo sales have exceeded everyone's expectations over this past year and production of new units hasn't kept pace with consumer demand," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. "Meanwhile, apartment demand has been hurt by a weak job market and low interest rates that have drawn some current and prospective renters into homeownership, but an improving economy should set the stage for greater strength in this sector down the road."
The MMI is based on a quarterly, nationwide survey of multifamily builders and property managers who are asked a series of questions about current market conditions as well as their expectations for the next six months, where a rating of 50 indicates that the number of positive responses is about the same as the number of negative responses.
The MMI's component index gauging starts of for-sale units increased from 53.44 in the second quarter to 53.47 in the third quarter, while the component gauging starts of affordable rental apartments fell to 38.82 from 42.86 in the previous quarter. The MMI also indicated continued weakness on the demand side for rental apartments. The index tracking calls from prospective renters dropped from 49 in the previous quarter to 38. The percentage of apartments rented within the last 90 days was also down, from 67.7 percent in the second quarter to 57.9 percent in the third quarter, according to the report.
The U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent to 114.2 (1996=100), the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index decreased 0.3 percent in November, according to recent Conference Board report.
The continued strong growth in the leading index -- a 3.5 percent annual rate over the last 3-4 months, or 5 percent excluding the effect of declines in the money supply -- is signaling that strong economic growth should persist in the near term, according to the report. Six of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, index of consumer expectations, vendor performance, average weekly manufacturing hours, stock prices, and interest rate spread. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor - were building permits, real money supply, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.
This is family day around our house, which means that my wife is wandering off to Orange County to meet with the Jarvis and Gross clanners. The stars of the proceedings will be Jake and Marissa who made their appearance in August of this year. Less than a year old and they already have their own web page jakeandmarissa.com. The weather looks like it’s cooperating with no rain projected until this evening so it should be a great event.
Housing starts hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.070 million units in November, 4.5 percent above October's 1.980 million units, and 17.6 percent above the November 2002 rate, according to a recent U.S. Dept. of Commerce report. November's rate of housing production was the strongest since February 1984. "The key driver for housing has been the favorable interest rate structure," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. "Ongoing solid increases in house values also have fueled demand for both single-family homes and condo units in multifamily structures,"
Single-family starts reached their highest pace on record in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.695 million units, 3.3 percent above the October rate and 20.8 percent above November 2002. Multifamily housing starts increased 10.6 percent over October to a seasonally adjusted rate of 375,000 units and increased 5.0 percent compared to the same period a year ago.
The Santa Barbara Seventh Day Adventists has taken to the Internet. Located at http://www.sbsdachurch.com web surfers can hear Rev. Pete Geli’s sermon on “The Gift” of Christ’s birth, and they can also enjoy the church’s 2003 Christmas musical program that was held last Saturday.
The congregation has been offering “virtual church” services in real time at 11:30AM and 12:15PM Saturdays as well as archived editions of past sermons. Many of the people who have found the site are service men and women in Iraq Rev. Geli said.
The median price of an existing home in California in November increased 17.8 percent and sales increased 15.7 percent compared to the same period a year ago, C.A.R. reported Tuesday. "The California housing market continues to surge forward as we approach the end of 2003," said C.A.R. President Ann Pettijohn. "Mortgage interest rates have hovered below 6 percent - a boon to the housing market under any circumstance, and a major factor contributing to the record performance thus far this year."
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 627,190 in November at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 15.7 percent from the 542,120 sales pace recorded in November 2002. The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2003 would be if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during November 2003 was $386,760, a 17.8 percent increase over the revised $328,440 median for November 2002, C.A.R. reported. The November 2003 median price increased 1.7 percent compared to a revised $380,350 median price in October.
Builder confidence in the new-homes marketplace remained unchanged in December from November's revised reading of 70 on the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) monthly Housing Market Index (HMI), released yesterday. "Looking forward, builders remain quite optimistic but are expressing some concern about the possibility of higher interest rates as the economic expansion continues," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. NAHB is projecting that rates on long-term mortgages will rise gradually in 2004, approaching 6.5 percent by mid-year.
The HMI is derived from a monthly survey of builders that NAHB has been conducting for nearly 20 years. Homebuilders are asked to rate current sales of single-family homes and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair," or "poor," where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
The index gauging current sales activity fell one point to 77 in December from a revised 78 points in November, the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose four points to 51 , and the index gauging expected sales in the next six months declined five points to 76, according to the report.
President Bush on Friday announced he will nominate Alphonso Jackson to become the 13th secretary of the U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Having served as HUD's deputy secretary for nearly three years, Jackson will continue the administration's housing and community development agenda begun under former Secretary Mel Martinez, who resigned last week.
As deputy secretary, Jackson served as HUD's chief operating officer, managing the day-to-day operations of a department with 9,300 employees and an annual budget of $32 billion. Jackson has extensive housing, finance and management experience, having directed public housing authorities in St. Louis, Washington, D.C. and Dallas. Jackson also served as chairman of two redevelopment agencies in Washington, D.C. and St. Louis.
HUD is the nation's housing agency committed to increasing homeownership, particularly among minorities; creating affordable housing opportunities for low-income Americans; and supporting the homeless, elderly, people with disabilities and people living with HIV/AIDS. The Department also promotes economic and community development as well as enforces the nation's fair housing laws.
The percentage of households in California able to afford a median-priced home stood at 25 percent in October, a five percentage-point decrease compared to the same period a year ago when the Index was at 30 percent, according to a report released today by the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).
The October Housing Affordability Index (HAI) increased by one percentage point from September when it stood at a revised 24 points. C.A.R.'s monthly housing affordability index measures the percentage of households that can afford to purchase a median-priced home in California. C.A.R. also reports housing affordability indexes for regions and select counties within the state. The index is the most fundamental measure of housing well-being in the state.
The minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home at $381,200 in California in October was $89,340, based on a typical 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at 5.83 percent and assuming a 20 percent downpayment. The minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home was up from $78,160 in October 2002, when the median price of a home was $324,670 and the prevailing interest rate was 6.14 percent. The minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home at $172,400 in the U.S. in October was $40,410.
10 Million Pounds of concrete got dumped in downtown Santa Barbara last night. The Carrillo Hotel started rising out of the hole in the ground that it’s been for several years.
By 9AM this morning supervisors expect to finish one of the largest continuous pours in recent memory. Approximately 2,700 cubic yards of concrete will serve as the base for the new hotel.
Eventually, the finished foundation will hold a four-star hotel designed in Andalusian Spanish style, housing 96 rooms, meeting spaces, a restaurant and bar, plus a rooftop swimming pool.
Today's Casa Article is all about the latest breed of SmartPhones. These phones are powered by the Windows Mobile Operating system and have a very cool feature set. If you're still hunting around for a gift for someone this may be opportunity knocking on your door.
Please give a look at How Smart is Your Phone??
The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications, a measure of mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancings, increased by 12.6 percent to 677.2 on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending Dec. 12 compared to 601.6 one week earlier, according to a report released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased by 11.3 percent for the week ending Dec. 12 compared with the previous week and was down 35.2 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 51.8 percent of total applications for the week ending Dec. 12 compared to 49.4 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 28.0 percent for the week ending Dec. 12 from 29.3 percent the previous week, according to the report.
Approximately 80,000 low-income families will receive millions in grants over the next two years to help them pay downpayment and closing costs on their first homes under legislation backed by NAR and C.A.R. The American Dream Downpayment Act, H.R. 1276/S. 811, passed its final hurdle in Congress yesterday and now heads to President Bush for his signature.
The legislation will provide an average of $5,000 in downpayment and closing cost assistance to help first-time homebuyers with annual incomes that do not exceed 80 percent of the area median income. Grants will be made to state and local governments through HUD's HOME Investment Partnership program. Families interested in applying for grants should contact their state or local housing agency.
The American Dream Downpayment Act also will increase Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan limits for the construction of multifamily housing in high-cost areas like Boston, New York and San Francisco and provides a technical correction to the FHA's Adjustable Rate Mortgage program that will make the product more accessible to consumers.
As with most things Santa Barbara we have a controversy. The latest involves the restoration of the Francheschi House into a place for educational tours both self-guided and led by docents, horticulture classes and private events such as weddings and business conferences. The plan has a maximum of 30 people to be allowed at the special events.
The primary issue is that the residents see the restoration as inserting a business into a small residential neighborhood. The Santa Barbara City Council is set to decide the fate of the park at a 6PM meeting tonight.
The home and park, located on 17 acres of hillside on the Riviera named after horticulturist Francesco Francheschi was originally constructed in 1905. Extensive additions were made in the 1920s after Alden Freeman purchased the property. In 1931 the, philanthropist donated the home and its land to the city.
The nonprofit Pearl Chase Society is waiting for the council to adopt the plan so that it can launch an aggressive fund-raising campaign to restore the house. Pearl Chase Society President Barbara Chen Lowenthal said the group has a goal f raising about $2.1 million and a $200,000 endowment.
U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Mel Martinez announced yesterday that he is resigning effective at noon on Friday. During Martinez's tenure, President Bush proposed the $200 million American Dream Downpayment Act to help more than 40,000 low-income families annually make the move into homeownership. HUD also announced reforms to the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act to improve the process of obtaining home mortgages and reduce settlement costs by as much as $700 for the average consumer. HUD also instituted a 25 percent increase in the loan limits for FHA multifamily insurance, the first of its kind in a decade.
The luxury home market in California is heating up, with Los Angeles values rising to their highest levels in 12 years and San Diego homes reaching another record high, according to the Prestige Home Index™ by First Republic Bank.
In San Francisco, the luxury home market broke a string of three consecutive down quarters and posted a 2.1 percent increase in the third quarter of 2003, a sign that the market for high-end properties is starting to recover after several years of flat or declining prices, according to the report.
Los Angeles area values rose 17.1 percent to $1.53 million from the third quarter of 2002 and 4.5 percent from the second quarter of 2003. San Diego area values increased 6.9 percent to $1.52 million from the third quarter of 2002 and 4.3 percent from the second quarter of 2003. San Francisco Bay Area values fell 0.4 percent to $2.23 million from the third quarter of 2002, but rose 2.1 percent from the second quarter of 2003, according to the report.
The Federal Reserve yesterday announced it will keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 percent. In a prepared statement, the Fed said it "continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity . . . output is expanding briskly, and the labor market appears to be improving modestly. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low."
The Fed also said that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. "The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation," the Fed said.
Todays Casa Article is all about the stuff you folks still haven't done for me. I gave you all a lot of hints last week, but so far nothin' I'm gonna give you all one more shot them I'm going to just have to move on.
Please read, So.... Where Are They????
The Music Academy of the West is on the verge of getting their $45 Million renovation approved. After fives years of planning and development, the academy’s Renaissance Plan was signed off Tuesday by the Montecito Association board of directors. The project will add 52,000 square feet of buildings on the 9-acre site.
The plans go before the Montecito Planning Commission at 9AM today. The goal of the project is to bring the academy’s outdated practice studios and recital rooms up to contemporary acoustical stands, and to restore the early 20th century estate’s original Mediterranean revival architecture.
The residents of the Santa Ynez Valley have their last chance today to explain why they don’t think the state should let the Chumash Casino’s third-floor restaurant serve beer and wine. A two-day hearing before a civil law judge at the Rancho Santa Barbara Marriott in Buellton will ultimately confirm or deny the state department of Alcoholic Beverage Control’s tentative approval of the license.
I got my Dodgers Season Tickets statement in the mail over the weekend. And as expected there was a slight increase in ticket prices for next year. My tickets, which were $28 last year, will be going to $30 this year. That price still isn’t too bad for a great day at the ballpark.
I sit in Row C Aisle 37, which is right at the top of the infield. I’m always impressed that a guy like me can have a very cool seat like that. I’ve had Season Tickets since 1978 so I guess I’ve earned the right to move on up with the big folks.
Anyway, the statement got me to thinking about all the great times I’ve had at the ballpark and it’s been a while since I’ve bored you with my photos, so please give a look at the Dodgers Stadium Tour.
The purpose of the contest held Friday was to maintain the team’s network service while attempting to break into their opponents’ systems.
The organizer of the event, professor Giovanni Vigna, set up the contest as part of his graduate class on Network Security and Intrusion Detection. He says that the hands-on exercise is one of the most effective tools in teaching network security. The idea isn’t to create skilled hackers, but highly trained guardians of computer networks able to combat nefarious attacks on a system’s security.
UCSB has established a strong reputation for teaching computer network security, said Engineering Dean Matt Terill. The school’s group went up against students from West Point, the Naval Post Graduate School at Monterey, University of Texas at Austin and Georgia Tech among others. The UCSB team Whitehat (a term for “good-guy” hackers) maintained a lead throughout the day.
Today's Casa Article addresses your incredible gratitude to me for writing all these articles. Specifically it addresses your need to buy me something for the Holiday Season. I've given you some pretty broad hints so get out there and buy, buy, buy!!!
Please read, I'm Makin' A List For You
The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications, a measure of mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancings, increased by 16.9 percent to 775.6 on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending Nov. 21 from 663.2 one week earlier, according to a report released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased by 28.1 percent for the week ending Nov. 21 compared with the previous week and was down 33.8 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 53.3 percent of total applications for the week ending Nov. 21 compared to 48.1 percent the previous week, according to the report. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 27.0 percent for the week ending Nov. 21 from 27.5 percent the previous week
Concerns have arisen concerning the Ritz-Carlton Entrada de Santa Barbara project at the foot of State St. Developer Bill Levy and the luxury hotel operator want to rebuild the vacant, four-story, seismically unstable Californian Hotel last instead of first as was expected when the project was approved in 2001.
The big concern in placing the hotel renovation on the backburner raises the spectrum of the Carrillo Hotel that gave downtown Santa Barbara nothing but a big hole in the ground for many years. The city wants to make sure that the financing for the project is in place before they authorize the changes.
The La Entrada development calls for 62 units of one, two and three bedrooms and about 18,000 square feet of commercial and retail space. The developers also have agreed to several public improvements such as 95 parking spaces, underground utilities, street upgrades and payment of $1 million to the city’s Redevelopment Agency.
More than 4,100 families in California will be able to benefit from Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's announcements yesterday that each will increase its single-family mortgage loan limit from $322,700 to $333,700 in 2004, according to a C.A.R. analysis. "While this is good news for many homebuyers, Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's new loan limits do not go far enough to improve homeownership opportunities in California," said C.A.R. President Ann Pettijohn. "Conforming loan limits need to more accurately reflect the cost of housing in California, where the median price of a home is more than double that of the nation."
Based on its 2004 sales projection, C.A.R. expects that 390,800 sales in the state will fall into the price range implied by the higher loan limits, an increase of 11,800 homes over the 2003 loan limits. The $11,000 increase in the single-family mortgage loan limit translates into an additional 4,100 households able to take advantage of savings provided by having a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgage. Based on a typical 25 basis point spread between conforming and jumbo mortgage loan rates, a typical California homebuyer will save up to $19,900 over the life of a 30-year mortgage. In some areas of the state, the recent spread between conforming and jumbo loans has been as much as 40 basis points. Households in these areas could save up to $32,000 over the life of a 30-year mortgage.
C.A.R. is supporting H.R. 3507, the "Improving Homeownership Opportunities in High Cost States Act of 2003." This legislation will enable homebuyers in California and other states to benefit from the federally chartered secondary market opportunities designed expressly for areas with an exceptionally high median-home price. Current law recognizes high-cost states and their need for an increased conforming loan limit but is currently restricted to Hawaii, Alaska, Guam and the Virgin Islands.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also announced new limits for multi-unit loans for 2004: two-family loans to $427,150; three-family loans to $516,300; and four-family loans to $641,650.
The median price of an existing home in California in October increased 17.4 percent and sales increased 9.9 percent compared to the same period a year ago, according to a C.A.R. report released yesterday. "Despite the fact that mortgage interest rates have leveled off in recent weeks, consumers remain concerned about rates trending up in the coming months," said C.A.R. President Ann Pettijohn. "Those concerns continued to drive buyers into the housing market in October."
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 636,690 in October at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 9.9 percent from the 579,240 sales pace recorded in October 2002. The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2003 would be if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during October 2003 was $381,200, a 17.4 percent increase over the revised $324,670 median for October 2002, C.A.R. reported. The October 2003 median price decreased 1.2 percent compared to a revised $385,880 median price in September.