The Federal Reserve today voted to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 percent. "The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity," the Fed said in a statement. "The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly. Although new hiring remains subdued, other indicators suggest an improvement in the labor market. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low.
"The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal," the Fed said. "The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation."
Today's Casa Article has to do with tips to make your computing experience a little faster. I show you how you can print a number of documents or spreadsheets without having to load the program and individually select them and print them
Also I'll show you a way to quickly email someone with out opening your email program. Please give a look at Quick Tips to Click
The median price of an existing home in California in December increased 19.4 percent and sales increased 11 percent compared to the same period a year ago, C.A.R. reported earlier this week. "The median price of a home in California topped $400,000 for the second time in 2003, hitting a record $404,520 last month," said C.A.R. President Ann Pettijohn. "Demand for homes continued unabated, propelled by mortgage rates that remained below 6 percent and an extremely low inventory of homes for sale."
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 637,080 in December at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 11 percent from the 573,790 sales pace recorded in December 2002. The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2003 would be if sales maintained the December pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during December 2003 was $404,520, a 19.4 percent increase over the revised $338,840 median for December 2002, C.A.R. reported. The December 2003 median price increased 5.1 percent compared to a revised $384,930 median price in November.
The Housing Market Index (HMI) fell two points to 68 in January compared to the previous month, according to a report released yesterday by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). "Keep in mind that the January HMI survey was taken before the latest downshift in long-term mortgage rates, so there is good upside potential for this measure heading forward," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. "The average rate on 30-year mortgages fell from an already attractive 5.85 percent in early January to an even more favorable 5.66 percent last week."
The HMI is derived from a monthly survey of builders that NAHB has been conducting for nearly 20 years. Homebuilders are asked to rate current sales of single-family homes and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair," or "poor," where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. The HMI has not been gauged below 50 since November of 2001.
Each of the HMI's component indexes slipped in January compared to the previous month. The index gauging current sales of new single-family homes fell three points to 74 while the indexes gauging sales expectations for the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers each fell two points to 75 and 50, respectively.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2 percent in December, following a decline of 0.2 percent in November, according to a recent U.S. Dept. of Labor report. The index for food rose 0.6 percent in December with prices for food at home up 0.8 percent, reflecting, in part, another large increase in beef prices. Energy costs rose 0.2 percent in December, following a 3.0 percent drop in November. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in December, compared with a 0.1 percent decrease in November, according to the report. Shelter costs, which were unchanged in November, increased 0.3 percent in December.
The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications, a measure of mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancings, increased by 30.4 percent to 916.1 on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending Jan. 16 compared to 702.6 one week earlier, according to the most recent report by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released today. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased by 35.7 percent for the week ending Jan. 16 compared with the previous week and decreased 19.6 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The MBA's seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased by 12.5 percent to 501.6 for the week ending Jan. 16 from 445.9 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Refinance Index increased by 51.5 percent to 3,327.3 for the week ending Jan. 16 from 2,195.7 one week earlier.
"Spurred by mortgage rates below 6 percent, the Purchase Index reached a record high and the Refinance Index increased by over 51 percent last week," said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's vice president of research and economics. "The Refinance Index increase marks the highest week to week percent increase since the week ending Jan. 12, 2001."
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 57.7 percent of total applications for the week ending Jan. 16 from 51.6 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 27.8 percent for the week ending Jan. 16 compared to 26.6 percent the previous week, according to the report.
One of the coolest things you can add to your PDA is a Global Positioning Card. With these devices you can see exactly where you are in the world. Of course what you do with that information is your business, but at least you'll know where you're starting from.
Please check out Where Am I?
New home construction increased 8.4 percent to 1.848 million units in 2003 compared to 2002, their highest level in 25 years, according to a U.S. Dept. of Commerce report released today. December housing starts increased 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.088 million units compared to November. "Builders completed an extraordinary year and remain upbeat about the strength of the market for the year ahead," said Kent Conine, president of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). "Builders continue to meet a robust demand fueled by low interest rates and solid house-price performance."
Single-family starts increased 13.6 percent over the year before to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.664 million units, 0.6 percent below November's record high. The seasonally adjusted rate for multifamily housing in December was 424,000 units, 20.1 percent above the pace of a year ago and 11.6 percent above November's pace.
"The strength in housing in 2003 was concentrated in single-family unit starts, while condominium units in multifamily structures gained ground as the year progressed," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. "As a result, the homeownership rate rose to record levels in 2003."
The pace of construction of new homes and apartments was mixed across all regions in December, with decreases posted in the Northeast and Midwest while the South and West posted gains. For the year as a whole, the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West were up 3.8 percent, 6.6 percent, 7.2 percent, and 13.9 percent respectively, according to the report
Homestore Inc. announced yesterday that Realtor.com®, the official Web site of NAR, will be the exclusive provider of integrated home listings and REALTOR® directory content to the House & Home channel on the MSN network. The new multi-year agreement is expected to go live before the end of the first quarter. Home listings appearing on Realtor.com will be available to MSN customers. Homestore will share revenue from these newly available advertising positions with MSN.
A city proposal requiring developers to build housing for middle-income workers is one of the issues facing the new City Council. Dubbed the “inclusionary” housing ordinance, it would force developers who want to build at least 10 market-rate homes to set aside at least 20 percent for families that earn between $60,000 and $120,000
Under the plan, in cases where there is not enough land to fit in the extra units, city planners are recommending that the developers pay fees of approximately $300,000 for each unit to a fund for middle-income housing.
The council faces a number of other housing-related issues this year. Officials are also tackling ways to update the 13-year-old neighborhood preservation ordinance to block a trend known as “mansionization.” And the council plans to take another look at altering Santa Barbara’s coastal “funk zone” to prevent “condomania.”
The city of Goleta’s moratorium on commercial construction will expire next month. The decision is due by February 13th, but the outcome of a January 26th special session on a possible ordinance may prove the telling indication on what way the council will go.
On that day, the council will debate the wisdom of refusing to accept or process project proposals deemed incompatible with the city’s future big-picture blueprint for traffic, noise and land-use rules – a general plan has yet to be written.
The current moratorium affects eight commercial building applications, while construction of multifamily, affordable housing; single-family homes; projects to revitalize Old Town; and renovations with no expansion of square footage are exempted. In addition, commercial developers can add up to 5,000 square to a structure.
The percentage of households in California able to afford a median-priced home stood at 25 percent in November, a 5 percentage-point decrease compared to the same period a year ago, when the Index was at 30 percent, according to a report released today by the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.). The November Housing Affordability Index (HAI) was unchanged from October, when it also stood at 25 points. C.A.R.'s monthly housing affordability index measures the percentage of households that can afford to purchase a median-priced home in California.
The minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home at $386,760 in California in November was $90,800, based on a typical 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at 5.85 percent and assuming a 20 percent downpayment. The minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home was up from $78,663 in November 2002, when the median price of a home was $328,440 and the prevailing interest rate was 6.08 percent. Nationally, the minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home at $170,900 in November 2003 was $40,120.
At 57 percent, the High Desert region was the most affordable C.A.R. region in the state, followed by the Sacramento region at 38 percent. The Northern Wine Country region was the least affordable in the state at 15 percent, followed by the San Diego region at 16 percent.
The Conference Board recently revised it 2004 economic forecast, projecting that real GDP growth will hit 5.7 percent this year, making 2004 the best year economically in the last 20 years. The forecast expects worker productivity, which set a 20-year record in the third quarter, to rise at a healthy 3.6 percent this year, following a gain of 4.3 percent in 2003.
"Growing business spending and continued strength in consumer spending are generating growth throughout the U.S. economy," said Conference Board Chief Economist Gail Fosler. "While the labor market, a critical factor in sustaining growth, is growing slowly, a pick-up in hiring may already have begun." Real consumer spending, which continues to fuel growth, will increase at a 4.7 percent pace this year, up from about 3.2 percent in 2004. A gain of 4.3 percent is projected for 2005, according to the report. While the U.S. economy is expected to generate more than one million new jobs, the unemployment rate will edge down only slightly, averaging 5.6 percent in 2004.
The C.A.R. Disaster Relief Fund has disbursed $40,000 to members and local association staff impacted by Southern California wildfires last year. The fund was created to distubute grants of between $1,000 and $5,000 to REALTORS® and local association staff who have lost their homes or places of business as a result of disasters. C.A.R. members impacted by the Southern California wildfires or last month's earthquake in Paso Robles may apply for financial assistance from the C.A.R. Disaster Relief Fund by accessing and completing an application through C.A.R. Online. Applicants must provide the documentation required; otherwise, the application will not be processed.
The C.A.R. Disaster Relief Fund also may be used for future disasters. For complete information on the C.A.R. Disaster Relief Fund and other disaster-related resources, visit the REALTORS® Care section of C.A.R. Online.
'Unsustainable' 3rd quarter growth to blame
Tuesday, January 13, 2004, Inman News
Chief executives' confidence in the nation's economy, which surged in the third quarter, declined in the fourth quarter of 2003, The Conference Board reports today.
The Conference Board's quarterly measure of CEO confidence, which had improved to 67 in the third quarter, slipped to 66 in the final quarter of 2003. A reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses. The survey covers more than 100 CEOs in a wide variety of industries.
"The dip in CEO confidence was expected given the unsustainable pace of growth in the third quarter of 2003," said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. "However, CEOs remain quite optimistic about the first half of 2004, and that optimism should translate into a pick-up in business activity."
Chief executives' assessment of current economic conditions gained further ground in the fourth quarter, with the confidence measure rising to 68 from 64. CEOs say that current economic conditions have improved – 88 percent versus 60 percent last quarter. In assessing their own industries, close to 63 percent say business conditions have improved, up from nearly 36 percent last quarter.
But CEOs' expectations for the next six months are more subdued. Chief executives' outlook for the economy slid to 66, down from 73 in the third quarter. Industry expectations were also more tempered, with this measure declining to 63 from 66.
The majority of chief executives expect changes in their firms' selling prices in 2004 – with 5 percent anticipating price increases in excess of 10 percent. On average, firms plan to hike prices by only 1.5 percent. Some 19 percent plan decreases. About 22 percent foresee no change.
Due to budget cutbacks from Sacramento the $45 million project aimed at easing traffic congestion between Milpas Street and Hot Springs Road will likely be delayed under the governor’s budget plan, which sharply cuts transportation funding throughout the state.
Over the weekend there appeared an article in the Santa Barbara News Press all about the prices in Santa Barbara County for 2003. Overall prices have gone up approximately 12% or 1% per month, with the number of homes sold almost exactly what had been sold in 2002. For more please read Home Prices in Santa Barbara for 2003.
The Consumer Confidence Index slipped in December and now stands at 91.3 (1985=100), down from 92.5 in November, according to a recent Conference Board report. The Present Situation Index declined to 73.9 from 81.0. The Expectations Index, however, increased to 102.9 from 100.1, according to the report. "The improvement in consumers' expectations signals healthy economic growth in 2004," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. "But job worries continue. Consumers' lackluster assessment of current conditions reflects continuing anxiety about labor market conditions. While consumers expect the job situation to improve in the months ahead, until a significant turnaround takes place, consumers' optimism about current-day conditions will continue to lag behind their expectations."
Consumers' assessment of current labor market conditions deteriorated in December. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 32.6 percent in December from 29.6 percent the previous month. Those claiming jobs are "plentiful" declined to 12.5 percent from 13.5 percent in November. Consumers' appraisal of current business conditions also lost ground, with those rating conditions as "good" decreasing to 18.7 percent from 19.9 percent. Those claiming conditions were "bad" rose to 24.4 percent in December from 23.6 percent, according to the report.
Consumers anticipating business conditions to pick up steam in the next six months rose to 26.8 percent in December from 24.5 percent, while those expecting conditions to worsen increased slightly to 8.1 percent from 7.2 percent in November. Consumers anticipating more jobs to become available in the next six months increased to 21.7 percent from 18.5 percent. Those expecting fewer jobs to become available decreased to 16.9 percent from 18.0 percent. Consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes rose slightly to 20.7 percent from 20.2 percent.
A growing economy will help to sustain strong home sales in 2004, but housing activity isn't likely to match last year's record, according to NAR. Final figures for existing-home sales will total almost 6.07 million in 2003, up 9.1 percent from the previous record of 5.57 million in 2002, according to NAR. "Existing-home sales should come in at about 5.85 million in 2004, still the second-best on record," he said. "We'll see a similar pattern this year for new homes with 1.01 million sales, off from a record of about 1.08 million for 2003," said NAR Chief Economist David Lereah. NAR forecasts housing starts to total 1.84 million units for 2003, the best performance since 1978, with 1.71 million units projected for 2004.
The national median existing-home price for all of 2003 rose about 8.0 percent to $170,800, while the median new-home price is expected to be up 3.7 percent to $194,500. The median existing-home price is forecast to grow by 4.6 percent in 2004, while new homes should increase by 5.1 percent, according to the report.
I know that a lot of you bought new computers over the holidays so after you've gotten all your old stuff off of them it's time to figure out what to do with these old machines. I put together some ideas for you in an article I call "Out With the Old.."
So, if you're still scratching your head about what to do please give a look at "Out With the Old..."
WASHINGTON (January 6, 2004) – A growing economy will help to sustain strong home sales in 2004, but housing activity isn't likely to match last year's record, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said final figures for existing-home sales will total almost 6.07 million in 2003, up 9.1 percent from the previous record of 5.57 million in 2002. "Existing-home sales should come in at about 5.85 million in 2004, still the second-best on record," he said. "We'll see a similar pattern this year for new homes with 1.01 million sales, off from a record of about 1.08 million for 2003." He expects housing starts to total 1.84 million units for 2003, the best performance since 1978, with 1.71 million units projected for this year.
Lereah said growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast at 4.7 percent for 2004. "The biggest turnaround in 2004 likely will be in the manufacturing sector, with business spending and job creation picking up steam – that will help to bring the unemployment rate down to 5.4 percent by the end of the year." He expects GDP to grow another 4.0 percent in 2005.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is projected to average 6.5 percent in 2004, up from a generational low of 5.8 percent in 2003. "On the heels of three consecutive record years for home sales, the up tick in mortgage interest rates will offset some of the benefits of an improving economy," Lereah said. "However, the impact will be fairly minimal because the fundamental conditions for a strong housing market remain – a growing number of households, an improving job market and generally good affordability conditions."
The national median existing-home price for all of 2003 rose about 8.0 percent to $170,800, while the median new-home price is expected to be up 3.7 percent to $194,500. The median existing-home price is forecast to grow by 4.6 percent in 2004, while new homes should increase by 5.1 percent.
NAR expects tame inflation with the consumer price index projected to increase a modest 1.6 percent in 2004. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 4.6 percent this year, while the consumer confidence index should rise gradually to 98 by the fourth quarter.
Propelled by double-digit price appreciation that was twice that of the nation, California homesellers reaped a record median gain of $150,000 in 2003, according to C.A.R.'s "State of the Housing Market 2003" report. "Net cash to sellers has never been higher since C.A.R. began conducting our annual survey of the California housing market," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "Sellers in 2003 realized an 8 percent annualized rate of return, far exceeding the returns on many other investment options." C.A.R. has conducted its annual housing market survey since 1981.
For buyers, robust price appreciation impacted the home financing component of the purchase transaction, according to the report. "As the median home price soared to historic highs, the median downpayment rose by 20 percent in 2003 to $59,000," Appleton-Young said. "There also was a $60,000 gap between the median downpayment of a repeat buyer ($86,950) and that of a first-time buyer ($25,500)."
The "State of the Housing Market 2003" report also revealed that nearly one out of four transactions in 2003 involved a second mortgage, an 18 percent increase compared to 2002 and well above the 20-year record low of 4.4 percent in 1988, but below that of the 1980 when their use exceeded 40 percent.
All over Santa Barbara County there are hundreds of homes on septic tanks and many of them are more than 50 years old. It is speculated that some of these may be contributing to pollution of local creeks and the ocean.
On Tuesday the interim director of the county Environmental Health Services will ask the county Board of Supervisors for permission to begin drawing up a $300,000 community-by-community plan to clean up septic tank problems.
The solutions could include sewer hookups, mandatory inspections, septic tank upgrades and in the case of Los Olivos constructing a sewer plant.
A recent survey by a consulting engineering firm of 24 clusters representing 4,300 septic tanks in Santa Barbara County shows that malfunctioning septic systems in Los Olivos and Janin Acres, a subdivision of 100 homes between Solvang and have contributed to unsafe levels of nitrates in local groundwater. Nitrates can be harmful to infants, so well water must be blended for safe drinking.
Yesterday I received a comment on a story I wrote for my Blog concerning the Coral Casino. The story was in reference to a proposed remodeling for the facility. Up until that time I had no idea there was a Coral Casino Beanie Baby.
The comment was from Phyllis Miceli and she buys and sells Beanie Babies, billing herself as “Queenie Beanie.” Here are the comments I received from Phyllis regarding the Coral Casino Beanie Baby. If you have any more questions please contact her directly at Phyllisjimfield@aol.com.
Ty Warner gave each member of the Coral Casino Club a bear called "Coral Casino." Many of the members didn't want the changes at the Coral Casino Club to be made, so to "win them over," he gave each member a bear personally signed by him at a Christmas Party in 2000. Many members don't even know that the bear is worth money in the beanie collecting community. Many members are so wealthy, that they don't even care. But for those few who do care, I pay $1,000 to $1,500 for each bear, depending on the number of the bear. My beanie customers want them, and they are quite collectible since he only handed out 588 of them.
If you know of any members, you might want to see if you can get them (sell them) for the members. I've been in business for quite a while selling beanies, so I'm a very reputable person to go through.
PLMK if I may be of further assistance.
Thank you,
Phyllis Miceli
Queenie Beanie
Phyllisjimfield@aol.com
The Help-Wanted Advertising Index, a key barometer of America's job market, increased to 39 in November, up from 37 in October, according to a recent report released by the Conference Board. The Index stood at 40 a year ago.
In the last three months, help-wanted advertising rose in seven of the nine U.S. regions. Strongest increases occurred in the New England (15.6 percent), East North Central (12.0 percent) and West South Central (8.1 percent) regions. Declines occurred in the Mountain (-6.6 percent) and South Atlantic (-1.8 percent) regions.
"The labor market is finally sparking to life," said Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein. "Initial unemployment claims are down. In fact, they've been trending lower in the last two months. Finally, in November, the volume of help-wanted ads showed an increase of two points. This is the first rise of even this small amount since June."
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. Because ad volume has proven to be sensitive to labor market conditions, this measure provides an important gauge of change in the local, regional and national supply of jobs.
One of the things about getting a new computer is figuring out how to move all your stuff from the old computer over to your new computer. This seemed like a pretty cool topic for a Casa Article so I wrote it.
Please give a look at Movin' Stuff Around!
Sales of detached existing single-family homes are expected to decline in 2004 from 2003's record-setting pace, while price appreciation will continue to be driven by strong demographics and higher, though historically low, interest rates in 2004, according to the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) "State of the Housing Market 2003" report.The median price of a single-family home is forecast to increase 13 percent from $369,5000 in 2003 to $417,500 in 2004, while sales are projected to decline 2 percent to 584,600 in 2004 from a record 596,500 in 2003.
As long as mortgage rates remain in the 6 to 7 percent range, most households will favor fixed rate mortgage instruments over adjustable mortgages, according to the report. However, the share of adjustable rate mortgages will climb in the year to come. Supply conditions in the market will remain very tight, and have the potential to set new record lows in the coming year.
"Strengthening economic conditions should drive job growth and household incomes should head upwards, adding fuel to the housing market," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton Young. "Repeat homebuyers will continue to dominate the market in 2004, rolling their equity gains on prior home sales into subsequent home purchases.
"Job growth was nil over the past two to three years, but households with jobs saw their incomes increase," she said. "With job numbers on the rise, there will be a spurt in household income growth. The cooling effects on the housing market of rising mortgage rates will be partially offset by gains in household incomes, resulting in continued strength in the housing market."