The U.S. leading index increased 0.1 percent in April and now stands at 115.9 (1996=100). During the six-month span through April, the leading index increased 1.8 percent, with nine out of 10 of the index's components advancing. The pickup in the growth rate of the leading index last year signaled stronger economic growth, and correspondingly, real GDP increased at a 5.5 percent annual rate over the last three quarters. The current 3.5 to 4.0 percent growth rate of the leading index is signaling the continuation of this relatively strong rate of economic growth in the near term, according to the report.
Four of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index increased in April. The positive contributors, beginning with the largest positive contributor, were: interest rate spread, real money supply, building permits, and stock prices. The negative contributors, beginning with the largest negative contributor, were: average weekly manufacturing hours, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, vendor performance, index of consumer expectations, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance.
Today’s Casa Article has to do with a scam that’s going around lately. If you’re looking for a job on the Internet you definitely need to check this one out. It involves people being solicited to handle PayPal accounts for people outside of the country.
For more please read What a Pal???
Strong condo demand and signs that the rental apartment market is emerging from its slump fueled the confidence of multifamily builders in the first quarter of this year, according to the latest Multifamily Market Index (MMI) report recently released by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The MMI's component index gauging current market conditions for for-sale units increased to 64 in the first quarter of 2004, compared to 46.7 in the first quarter of 2003. "The evolving upswing in the job creation numbers bodes well for the multifamily sector," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. "Since job creation often leads to new household formation-and new households often tend to be renters or first-time condo buyers-it looks like there are better days ahead for the multifamily segment of the housing market."
The MMI is based on a quarterly, nationwide survey of multifamily builders and property owners who are asked a series of questions about current market conditions and expectations for the next six months, based on a scale from 1 to 100, with a rating of 50 generally indicating that the number of positive responses is about the same as the number of negative responses.
All types of apartments reported more demand this quarter, but luxury apartments have rebounded most strongly at an index value of 46.5, a nearly 17-point increase compared to the same period last year. Multifamily builders expressed optimism regarding the next six months, with the index tracking expected market conditions for market-rate apartments rising 16 points over this time last year to an index number of 57.1. The low-income (subsidized) apartment producers index, at 51.8, increased from 50 last year and the condo market's 55.3 index number improved seven points compared to the same period a year ago.
The median price of an existing home in California in April increased 24.6 percent and sales increased 9.8 percent compared to the same period a year ago, the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.
"The median price of a home surged to another record in April as the traditional spring home buying season got underway, “said C.A.R. President Ann Pettijohn. "Buyers concerned about potential interest-rate increases later this year jumped into the market, while the supply of homes for sale continued to shrink."
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 640,710 in April at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 9.8 percent from the 583,330 sales pace recorded in April 2003.
The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2004 would be if sales maintained the April pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during April 2004 was $453,590, a 24.6 percent increase over the revised $364,040 median for April 2003, C.A.R. reported. The April 2004 median price increased 5.8 percent compared to a revised $428,570 median price in March.
"While demand for homes shows no signs of abating, California is simply not adding sufficient housing stock to the supply of homes for sale to meet this need," said Leslie Appleton-Young, C.A.R.'s vice president and chief economist. "This is a serious issue that California REALTORS® are addressing through a number of initiatives in Sacramento and on the housing affordability front."
Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for April 2004:
· C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in April 2004 was 1.7 months, compared to a revised 2.6 months for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
· Thirty-year fixed mortgage interest rates averaged 5.83 percent during April 2004, up from 5.81 percent in April 2003, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable mortgage interest rates averaged 3.65 percent in April 2004 compared to 3.80 percent in April 2003.
· The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 25 days in April 2004, compared to 28 days (revised) for the same period a year ago.
Regional MLS sales and price information is contained in the tables that accompany this press release. Regional sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. The MLS median price and sales data for detached homes is generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state. MLS median price and sales data for condominiums is based on a survey of more than 60 associations. The median price for both detached homes and condominiums represents closed escrow sales.
In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 99 percent or 410 of 414 cities and communities showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. DataQuick statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. DataQuick Information Systems is a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates.
Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand. The DataQuick tables listing median home prices in California cities and counties are accessible through C.A.R. Online at localized data collected by C.A.R. and DataQuick at http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzM2NDM. (The top 10 lists are generated for incorporated cities with a minimum of 30 recorded sales in the month.)
Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the highest median home prices in California during April 2004 were: Malibu, $1,547,500; Beverly Hills, $1,420,000; Los Altos, $1,350,000; Laguna Beach, $1,314,500; Manhattan Beach, $1,265,000; Saratoga, $1,236,000; Calabasas, $1,160,000; Burlingame, $1,100,000; Palos Verdes Estates, $1,012,500; Newport Beach, $990,000.
Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the greatest median home price increases in April 2004 compared to the same period a year ago were: Calabasas, 66.9%, La Verne, 59.7 percent; Culver City, 55.2 percent; Seaside, 49.9 percent; Moorpark, 49.9 percent; Beaumont, 49.2 percent; Santa Paula, 48.1 percent; Monterey Park, 47.4 percent; Paramount, 45.8 percent; Upland, 45.4 percent.
The latest survey on their outlook on the economy came in below Wall Street expectations Tuesday.
The index from The Conference Board, a private research organization, came in at 93.2, up only slightly from a revised April reading of 93. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast the index would rise to 94.
The conference board report said that growing confidence over the improved employment picture was balanced by concerns over higher gasoline prices and turmoil in Iraq.
"Consumer attitudes are really being tested right now," said Steve Stanley, economist with RBS Greenwich Capital. "The economy and the labor situation are improving, but households are facing 1) surging gas pieces, 2) falling stocks, 3) rising interest rates, and 4) a steady stream of negative press coverage from Iraq."
"The presumption would have to be that gas prices will peak some time soon, and sentiment can do better, but that obviously remains to be seen," Stanley added.
Steven Wieting, senior economist with Citigroup, said the results of this survey show remarkably little change in what is often a volatile number, which he also attributes to the conflicting news reports confronting consumers.
"There's been an ongoing improvement in employment, but gasoline is not friendly -- it's an important headline price," he said.
The report found contradictory results among those surveyed, with both the more positive and the more negative view of the economy gaining at the same time.
The survey found consumers claiming jobs are "hard to get" rose to 30.6 percent from 28.0 percent in April. But those saying jobs are "plentiful" also increased to 16.6 percent from 15.6 percent in April.
A similar split opinion was found when asked about future economic conditions, as those expecting business conditions to improve in the next six months rose to 22.9 percent from 20.8 percent, while those expecting conditions to worsen also increased to 10.1 percent from 9.3 percent.
The future employment outlook showed improvement, as those anticipating more jobs becoming available in the next six months increased to 19.2 percent from 18.3 percent. Those expecting fewer jobs dipped to 17.2 percent from 17.7 percent.
But again that was countered by the portion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes, which declined to 16.8 percent from 17.4 percent in April.
Consumer confidence is important because it can affect spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.
The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) rose to a record 59 in the first quarter of the year, according to a recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) report. The RMI is based on a quarterly survey that generates two separate indexes. The first index gauges current market conditions while the second index gauges expectations for the near future.
In a year-to-year comparison, both indexes showed improvement over the first quarter in 2003. The current market conditions index rose to 59.0, a 12.6-point gain from 46.4 in the first quarter of 2003. The future expectations index rose to 62.8, a 12-point gain, from 50.3 in a year earlier.
"The current market conditions index shows a very strong market, compared to the same period last year," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. "The year-over-year gains in both indexes for every region are remarkable, and point to another banner year for the remodeling industry in 2004. What's more, substantial year-over-year gains are apparent for every single component of the future expectations index -- including calls for bids and amount of work committed for the next three months, for both owner- and renter-occupied dwellings, plus overall job backlogs and appointments for proposals."
The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications, a measure of mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancings, decreased by 11.9 percent to 654.1 on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 14 from 742.2 one week earlier, according to a report released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased by 11.6 percent for the week ending May 14 compared with the previous week and was down 55.8 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 37.4 percent of total applications for the week ending May 14 from 39.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 35.2 percent of total applications for the week ending May 14 compared to 34.8 percent the previous week, according to the report.
A rise in mortgage interest rates shows little sign of slowing demand for homes in Santa Barbara County, where South Coast prices came close to the million-dollar mark and median home prices across the country last month posted double-digit gains from a year ago.
On the South Coast, the median was $985,000 in April, up 20 percent from the $819,000 of a year ago. The Santa Ynez Valley posted a 23 percent gain to hit $742,000 last month compared to $602,250 last April. In the Lompoc Valley, the media in April was $335,000, up 25 percent from $267,675 while Santa Maria reported $340,000, a 24 percent rise from last year’s $275,000
The biggest word in computing these days is Security, so I thought it was a good idea to look at some of the things that you can do to keep people out of your stuff. From fingerprint recognition to scanning the retina of your eye this is some pretty cool stuff.
If you think it’s time to keep people from looking at your precious documents please give Keeping the Nasties Out!!!
The May Housing Market Index (HMI), a monthly gauge of builder sentiment, remained unchanged from 69 in April, according to a report released Monday by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
The HMI is derived from a monthly survey of builders that NAHB has been conducting for the last 19 years. Homebuilders are asked to rate current and expected sales of single-family homes as "good," "fair," or "poor." They also are asked to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average," or "low to very low," where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The index gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose seven points to 55, the index gauging current sales of new single-family homes fell three points to 74, and the index gauging sales expectations for the next six months declined one point to 75.
The city council of Santa Barbara has agreed to give an extra $6.7 million to help build the city’s largest affordable housing project ever. It will consist of 170 units for seniors and families.
The city’s Redevelopment Agency had already agreed to give developers, Mercy Housing and St. Vincent’s Daughters of Charity $10.6 million toward the $50 million project. But the rising cost of steel and other building materials is forcing the city to cough up more cash to keep the project alive.
Deciding whether to fork over more money put the council in an awkward position, and the panel realistically had little choice but to consent to the additional cash. Affordable housing is one of the city’s top priorities; obtaining 170 units of that affordable housing is seen as a rare opportunity.
But, giving the money will require the city to use Redevelopment Agency reserve funds and to sell bonds. It also could constrain the city on future housing projects funded with redevelopment money.
The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications, a measure of mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancings, decreased by 5 percent to 742.2 on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 7 from 780.9 one week earlier, according to a report released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased by 4.1 percent for the week ending May 7 compared to the previous week and was down 45.2 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 39.8 percent of total applications for the week ending May 7 from 44.0 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 34.8 percent of total applications for the week ending May 7 compared to 32.1 percent the previous week, according to the report.
Economic growth is expected to remain above historic averages over the next two years, stimulating job growth and sustaining home sales despite higher interest rates, according to a recent NAR forecast. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is expected to rise gradually to 6.6 percent by the fourth quarter. According to NAR economists, higher interest rates will hurt lower-income buyers who are at the margins of qualifying for a loan, while a rising stock market should help upper-income buyers.
Existing-home sales are projected to reach 6.00 million in 2004, 1.6 percent below the 2003 record of 6.10 million. The median existing-home price is projected to increase 4.7 percent this year to $178,100, while the median new-home price should rise 5.1 percent to $205,000.
Today's Casa Article is all about some cool electronics I found. The first one is a pair of DVD goggles on which you can view your favorite movies. The viewer sits just to the side of directly in front of your eye and you can choose a model according to which of your eyes is dominant.
The second device is a hand cranked generator that can extend the life of your cell phone battery. With two minutes of cranking you can get 5 to 6 minutes of talk time or a half hour of standby.
For more please read Stuff Ya' Gotta' Have!!
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California set a new record during the first quarter of 2004, rising 20.5 percent to $407,170, C.A.R. reported today. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California amounted to 598,370 for the first quarter of 2004 at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, a 4.4 percent increase from 573,030 in the first quarter of 2003.
C.A.R.'s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes for the first quarter of 2004 was 1.6 months, compared to a revised 2.6 months for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 27 days in the first quarter of 2004, compared to a revised 30 days for the same period a year ago.
The Consumer Confidence Index rose in April and now stands at 92.9 (1985=100), up from 88.5 in March, according to a recent Conference Board report. "This latest improvement in consumer confidence was sparked by a more favorable assessment of current business and labor market conditions and increased consumer optimism about the next six months," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. "The job market, which has a major impact on confidence, appears to be gaining strength. The percentage of consumers claiming jobs are hard to get is now at its lowest level since November 2002, and more consumers expect this trend to continue."
Consumers saying business conditions have improved rose to 21.4 percent in April, up from 20.7 percent in March. Consumers' optimism about the next six months improved for the first time this year, according to the report. Consumers expecting business conditions to improve in the next six months edged up to 20.5 percent in April compared to 19.5 percent. Consumers expecting conditions to worsen dipped to 9.3 percent in April compared to 9.7 percent the previous month.
The employment outlook was also more favorable, with consumers anticipating more jobs to become available in the next six months increasing to 18.2 percent in April from 15.7 percent in March.
The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications, a measure of mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancings, increased by 4.4 percent to 780.9 on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 30
from 748.0 one week earlier, according to a report released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased by 4.8 percent for the week ending April 30 compared with the previous week and was down 35.3 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The refinance share of mortgage activity remained unchanged at 44.0 percent of total applications for the week ending April 30. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 32.1 percent of total applications for the week ending April 30 compared to 32.7 percent the previous week, according to the report.
Buoyed largely by the second-lowest interest rates since 1956 and a strengthening national economy, new home sales set a new record in March, according to a recent U.S. Dept. of Commerce report. The pace of new, single-family home sales increased 8.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.228 million in March compared to the previous month and increased 21.8 percent compared to March 2003.
"Though interest rates are beginning to rise as the economy improves, we still expect the housing market to remain strong because the fundamentals- household incomes, employment and household formations- are strong," said National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chief Economist David
Seiders.
Three regions registered sales increases during March, according to the report. New home sales in the South increased 19.3 percent, 5.0 percent in the Midwest and 5.1 in the West. Sales in the Northeast declined 24.3 percent.
The inventory of new homes for sale in March was 372,000 units, representing a very low 3.7-month supply at the current sales
California households, with a median household income of $52,320, are $41,360 short of the $93,680 qualifying income needed to purchase a median-priced home at $406,390 in California, according to C.A.R.'s recently released Homebuyer Income Gap Index (HIGI) report for the first quarter of 2004. The Homebuyer Income Gap Index™ is a quarterly analysis of the difference between the median household income and the qualifying income needed to purchase a median-priced, single-family home for the state and for select regions within the state.
The Homebuyer Income Gap Index™ for California increased 45 percent during the first quarter of 2004 compared to the first quarter of 2003, when the gap stood at $28,530, the median household income was $51,180, and qualifying income needed to purchase a median-priced home at $338,010 was $79,710.
According to the report, potential homebuyers in the Central Valley, with a median household income of $40,250, had the smallest income gap in the first quarter of 2004 at $16,410, and needed a qualifying income of $56,660 to purchase a median-priced home at $245,790. The San Francisco Bay Area had the highest gap in the state at $68,920, where potential homebuyers had a median household income of $69,810 but needed a qualifying income of $138,730 to purchase a median-priced home at $601,820.
One of the more interesting attractions in Santa Barbara, actually Montecito, is Lotusland. This 37 acre estate was purchased in 1941 by Polish Opera Singer Ganna Walska and has been amazing people ever since. The estate has been open to the public for the last 10 years and can be seen from mid-February to mid-November on Docent led tours. For more on Lotusland please read Lotusland, Montecito.
Today's Casa Article is all about the nost panicky phone call I get which is I've lost all my contacts out of Outlook. There's a very cool program I found which can help you back up those Outlook Contacts, as well as Appointments and Email. For more please read the Outlook is Cloudy But Clearing!!!
The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve yesterday voted to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 percent. The Fed continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. "The evidence accumulated over the inter-meeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid rate and hiring appears to have picked up. Although incoming inflation data have moved somewhat higher, long-term inflation expectations appear to have remained well contained," the Fed said in a prepared statement. "The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal," the Fed said. "Similarly, the risks to the goal of price stability have moved into balance. At this juncture, with inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured
Housing starts increased 6.4 percent to a seasonably adjusted annual rate of 2.007 million units in March compared to February's upwardly revised rate of 1.887 million and 15.2 percent above the March 2003 pace, according to a recent U.S. Dept. of Commerce report. "Favorable market conditions continue to bode well for housing. The interest rate structure remains favorable; national, regional and local economies are strengthening; growth of employment and household income is picking up; and household formations are increasing in the process," said National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chief Economist David Seiders. "Although interest rates have moved up since the end of March, the strengthening economic and demographic fundamentals will provide strong support to housing demand as the year progresses."
For the month, single-family housing starts increased 5.5 percent to a pace of 1.599 million, up 14.8 percent compared to March 2003, according to the report. Multifamily housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 408,000 units in March, a 9.7 percent increase from February and 16.9 percent above March 2003. Construction of new homes and apartments increased across all regions but the Northeast, which fell by 4.9 percent.
Issuance of total building permits increased 1.9 percent in March to a seasonably adjusted rate of 1.946 million units compared to February and 15.3 percent above March 2003, according to the report.
The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications, a measure of mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancings, increased by 0.5 percent to 748.0 on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 23 from 744.5 one week earlier, according to a report released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased by 1.3 percent for the week ending April 23 compared with the previous week and was down 26.6 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 44.0 percent of total applications for the week ending April 23 from 47.3 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 32.7 percent of total applications for the week ending April 23 compared to 31.7 percent the previous week, according to the report.
Even if the Federal Reserve Board begins raising interest rates, the housing industry is moving into a healthier economic environment where job growth and income gains will keep residential construction and sales at healthy levels and buoy house values as well, according to an analysis by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders projects that the federal funds rate, which is currently 1 percent, will begin to rise in August and increase gradually to about three percent by the end of 2005. Mortgage interest rates, which in the past several weeks have climbed to the 6 percent level, will likely rise to no more than 6.25 percent by the end of this year and 7 percent by the end of 2005, he said.
"We're already past a contraction in payroll employment, and jobs and income are in a growth mode," he said, "so [housing] prices won't contract because the real economy is coming on strongly."
Single-family housing starts are expected to remain at high levels, declining from 1.5 million units last year to 1.488 million in 2004 and 1.422 million in 2005. Bolstered by growing strength in the condominium market, this year's multifamily construction is forecast to remain at last year's 348,000-unit level and decline to 320,000 units next year, according to the forecast.
The median price of an existing home in California in March increased 22 percent and sales increased 4 percent compared to the same period a year ago, the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today. "The median price of a home continued its run of double-digit price increases last month as buyers scrambled to purchase homes amid concerns of rising mortgage interest rates," said C.A.R. President Ann Pettijohn. "This unprecedented demand helped push the median price of a home in many regions in the state to record highs in March. And at $428,280, the median price for the state also hit a record high in March compared to $351,130 just one year ago."
The median price of a home in the Central Valley, High Desert, Monterey, Monterey County, Northern California, Northern Wine, Orange County, Riverside/San Bernardino, Sacramento, San Diego, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, North Santa Barbara County and Santa Barbara South Coast regions posted record highs in March, according to C.A.R.
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 590,220 in March at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 4 percent from the 567,610 sales pace recorded in March 2003. The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2004 would be if sales maintained the March pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.