The Consumer Confidence Index increased for the second straight month, The Conference Board recently announced. The Index stood at 103.4 (1985=100) in January, up from 102.7 in December. The Present Situation Index also increased, rising to 110.9 from 105.7, while the Expectations Index declined to 98.4 from 100.7.
According to The Conference Board, consumers' overall assessment of current conditions improved in January, with those claiming business conditions are "good" increasing to 26.0 percent from 24.4 percent in December. Consumers are also maintaining a more favorable employment outlook. The percentage of consumers that said jobs are "plentiful" increased to 20.7 percent from 19.4 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" fell to 24.7 percent from 26.4 percent.
The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - was 658.1 for the week ending Jan. 21, a decrease of 3.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 682.9 one week earlier, The Mortgage Bankers Association reported today. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10.7 percent for the week ending Jan. 21 compared with the previous week and was down 26.2 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 46.5 percent of total applications for the week ending Jan. 21 from 48.9 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 31.7 percent from 32.8 percent of total applications.
The record-breaking performances of the California housing market that began in the late 1990s continued in 2004, according to the C.A.R. "2004 -- 2005 State of the Housing Market" report, released earlier this week. Home sales and the median home price reached record high levels in 2004, while the share of first-time buyers dropped below 30 percent for only the second time in the 24-year history of the C.A.R. survey, reaching a record low of 26 percent in 2004.
While the state's housing market has made significant advances every year since 1995, with the exception of a slight pause in 2001, housing affordability is a growing concern that could negatively impact the long-term health of the housing market and the California economy. At 20 percent in 2004, affordability in California was less than half that of the nation. With prices and mortgage rates on the rise, affordability will likely plunge to record low levels in 2005, with several coastal regions in the state dipping into single-digit territory for the first time.
"The fate of the housing market will be tied mainly to the direction of the economy," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "The greatest concern surrounds the current increase in the use of low downpayment and interest-only ARMs. If the economy should weaken and trigger job losses, there is potential for today's marginally qualified homebuyers to be tomorrow's foreclosure."
The U.S. leading index, a key barometer of economic conditions, increased for the second straight month, rising 0.2 percent to 115.4 in December, The Conference Board recently reported. Four of the components that make up the index advanced in December, including the index of consumer expectations, stock prices, real money supply and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance. This is the second month the leading index advanced, following five consecutive declines. In a written release, The Conference Board stated, "It is now more likely that the five-month decline in the leading index was only a pause in the rising trend that has been underway since March 2003."
The coincident index, an index of current economic activity, also grew in December, increasing 0.3 percent to 118.6. All four components of the coincident index advanced. The lagging index remained unchanged in December, remaining at 98.9
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during December 2004 was $474,480, an 18.1 percent increase over the revised $401,720 median for December 2003, C.A.R. recently reported. The December 2004 median price increased 0.5 percent compared with a revised $471,980 median price in November.
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 645,860 in December at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 1.4 percent from the 637,080 sales pace recorded in December 2003. The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2004 would be if sales maintained the December pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
"After peaking in the middle of 2004, the number of homes for sale dropped again last month to a 2.8 month supply compared with 3.5 months in November," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "Despite having fewer homes to choose from, buyers are becoming more selective and are taking more time before making an offer on a home. The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home reached 43 days in December, compared to 27 days a year ago."
Recent changes to real estate tax laws may affect the decisions of California's homebuyers and sellers. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has imposed a five-year ownership requirement to qualify for the $250,000 (or $500,000 for married couples) exclusion from capital gains taxes for properties acquired through a 1031 exchange. In a separate move, California's Franchise Tax Board has eased its real estate withholding requirements by no longer requiring one as long as the seller last used the property being sold as his or her principal residence.
C.A.R.'s Legal Department has recently updated the legal memoranda titled "Capital Gains on Real Estate Sales," and "California Withholding on the Sales of Real Property." In addition, C.A.R will be releasing an updated version of the standard form "Seller's Affidavit of Non-foreign Status and/or California Withholding Exemption."
The nation's home builders expect the housing market to remain strong as a growing economy helps offset the impact of slowly rising mortgage interest rates, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). While all three components of the index fell slightly in January, they remained near the peak levels of 2004.
In January, the seasonally adjusted HMI fell one point to 70, and the HMI component gauging current single-family sales also declined one point to 77. The remaining two components of the index, sales prospects for the next six months and buyer traffic, both decreased two points, ending at 78 and 50, respectively. Regionally, home builders in the West remain the most confident, with an overall seasonally adjusted HMI of 81.
Thoms Schultz NEWS-PRESS STAFF WRITER
The first look at a plan to steer Goleta through two decades of decision-making is ready.
So are critics poised to take a swipe at it.
City Hall policy-makers and backers of the Goleta Draft General Plan say the long-range blueprint for growth and development offers a solid blend of rules on noise, safety, land use and traffic as required by state law. Officials are gearing up for five public forums this week focused on the document, although they admit it's a work in progress.
"It's going to be interesting to see how people respond," Goleta City Councilwoman Cynthia Brock said. "I know that there's more work to be done. There may be some inconsistencies. There may be some areas where we need to go into greater detail. This process will help us identify some of those."
Critics are wary, and they want to rally residents against the plan. Years-long debate about how much housing to create, and where to put it, promises to surface strongly -- as does concern the city has not sought enough public input to date, a claim that officials deny.
"There's a lot wrong there," said Jennifer McGovern, coordinator of the Goleta Housing Leadership Council, which advocates for new construction. "It is really a disservice to the community," she added, wondering if the problems she sees were intentional.
The plan places a high priority on environmental conservation and concentrates new housing along the Hollister Avenue corridor. It's nothing new in Goleta's slow-growth politics that the plan envisions an economy that does not depend on expansion.
Well I finally bought myself a new computer. The last one I built was in December 2000 so I figured I was due. Up until this time I'd always built every computer I owned except for the notebooks.
I started doing the math and I just couldn't compete with the deal Dell puts together. I got a Pentium 4 3.8GHz with 1 Gig of RAM a 48X CD Burner and a 16X Double Sided DVD Burner. Then I got 2 400 Gig Hard Drives and to finish it off a Radeon X800 PCI Express Video Card with 256 Meg of RAM.
I figured out what it would cost me to build and Dell came in $500 cheaper than I could buy the parts and put it together. So far so good. I'll to see whether Dell Tech Support is going to be a plus or minus. But as of now I'm lovin' it!!
I've been looking at GPS Technology for quite a while. It's an amazing technology that allows you to figure out where you are. Now most of the time I know where I am, but there are those times where a device hooked up to a satellite would be very helpful.
If I were ready to plunk down my hard earned coin on one of these devices I think I've found the one. For more on my search please read "What Do The Drums Say?"
It's unclear when highways hit hard by storms will reopen
Heavy rains did a number on local roads, and drivers are paying the price.
Commutes that averaged 45 minutes are dragging on for six hours, and drivers accustomed to taking the easiest route are now forced to use whichever route is open.
Crews from Caltrans, Santa Barbara County and various cities affected by the recent storms are doing what they can to keep the traffic flowing, but with some road closures on the indefinite list, the only thing to do is leave a little early and keep your cool behind the wheel.
Mark Human typically spends less than a half-hour driving between Santa Barbara and Rancho San Marcos Golf Course, about 12 miles north on Highway 154, where he is the general manager. Since the rains damaged the San Marcos Pass, his drive has been extended up to 75 minutes, and the same goes for the dozen or so employees who live on the Santa Barbara side of the pass.
The percentage of households in California able to afford a median-priced home stood at 19 percent in November, a 6 percentage-point decrease compared with the same period a year ago when the Index was at 25 percent, according to a recent C.A.R. report. The November Housing Affordability Index (HAI) was unchanged from October, when it also stood at 19 percent.
C.A.R.'s monthly housing affordability index measures the percentage of households that can afford to purchase a median-priced home in California. The index is the most fundamental measure of housing well-being in the state. At 40 percent, the High Desert Region was the most affordable C.A.R. Region, followed by the Central Valley Region at 25 percent. The Santa Barbara Region was the least affordable in the state at 7 percent, followed by the Monterey Region at 11 percent.
By Maria Zate, Santa Barbara Newspress
Spokesmen for the North County farming and ranching community lobbied a sympathetic Board of Supervisors on Tuesday for broad changes in the way the county conducts its environmental review of development projects.
Willy Chamberlin, a Santa Ynez Valley rancher; Lanny Stableford, a Gaviota coast rancher; and Andy Caldwell, spokesman for the nonprofit Coalition of Labor, Agriculture and Business, said the county should allow developers to manage their own environmental impact reports. Presently, developers choose a consulting firm, and county Planning and Development employees supervise the preparation of the reports. Later on, the reports are released to the public and hearings are held.
Environmental review of proposed development is the linchpin of California's protections for wetlands, wildlife, beaches and creeks. But in Santa Barbara County, the farmers said, the reports too often were unfriendly to ranchers, lopsided in their conclusions and unfairly expensive. They asked Planning and Development officials to expand their list of qualified consulting firms. They also objected to the fact that some former county planners work for these companies.
More than 250 people turned out Wednesday for "The 2005 North Santa Barbara County Real Estate & Economic Outlook" presented by Chicago Title & Escrow at the Radisson Hotel.
Cindy Ioimo and Jim Gray of Chicago Title were masters of the ceremony. Most of the folks in the room (some from Santa Barbara) were involved in one way or another with development, planning, construction, accounting, investments, real estate sales and real estate transactions.
Local veteran developer Tony Wells opened the program with his presentation of the market from a developer's point of view.
Wells wanted to know the answer to the important question: How many people leave Santa Maria during the week to drive north and south for work? Using Caltrans data and some admittedly shaky prediction techniques, Wells and his staff concluded that, Monday through Friday, twice as many Santa Maria residents drive north than drive south during the early morning rush hours.
Santa Barbara economist and consultant Mark Schniepp was the keynote speaker. He offered an overview of housing prices and market factors and added demographics and "quality of life" issues that affect migration. Mark's group, The California Economic Forecast, prepared a 60-page economic outlook.
Chief executives' confidence in the nation's economy declined to 61 in the fourth quarter of 2004, according to The Conference Board's CEO Confidence Survey. CEO confidence has fallen for three consecutive quarters, after surging to 73 in the first quarter of 2004. A reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses.
Survey participants expressed less confidence in the short-term outlook than they did in the prior survey, with only 50 percent expecting economic conditions to improve in the coming months, down from 55 percent last quarter. Their expectations for their own industries, however, remain unchanged, with 52 percent anticipating an improvement.
Approximately 51 percent of the American population, or nearly 57 million households, now have discretionary income, according to a report by The Conference Board. Nearly 3 million more households have discretionary income compared with the number of households with discretionary income in 1997-1998, when roughly 52 percent of the population had such income available. Discretionary income is defined as money available after taxes have been paid.
The study also found that discretionary income is concentrated among the nation's affluent households, with 82 percent of all discretionary income held by those earning $100,000 or more. The average discretionary income for this segment is $62,110, nearly three times above the U.S. average of $21,657. Households that earn less than $50,000 represent about 26 percent of all households with discretionary income, but their average household discretionary income is only $2,075.
How do you rehearse a concert when your conductor and soloist are in one city, the majority of your musicians are in another, and the road between the two has been closed by a mountain of mud?
That's the dilemma Santa Barbara Symphony officials faced this week as they scrambled to avoid canceling this weekend's programs. The concerts, at 8 tonight and 3 p.m. Sunday in the Arlington Theatre, will go on as scheduled, but making them happen has been a challenge of Wagnerian proportions.
Only about a dozen of the orchestra's 65 musicians live in the Santa Barbara area; the others are drawn from the huge pool of freelance players in Los Angeles.
During a normal concert week, the musicians drive up for rehearsals on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday nights.
But this was hardly a normal week. Guest conductor Christoph Campestrini flew in from another engagement in Oregon on Sunday night; piano soloist Jon Nakamatsu drove from his home in San Jose on Wednesday. But with Highway 101 closed south of Carpinteria, the players had no way to join them.
"We were trying to be as creative as possible," said John Robinson, the orchestra's executive director. "We were looking at bringing people up here by boat on Friday afternoon, and housing them at the homes of board members and local musicians for the weekend. We looked at the idea of chartering a bus (to take the musicians up Interstate 5, then across to Santa Maria and down into Santa Barbara)."
These were far from ideal solutions; many of the musicians are parents who need to be home between rehearsals to care for their children. Ultimately, arrangements were made to hold the long-delayed first rehearsal at 7:30 p.m. Friday in the Oxnard Performing Arts Center.
"Once we knew that the road was likely to be open on Saturday, the idea of getting a smaller number of musicians from Santa Barbara to Oxnard to rehearse made so much more sense than bringing up 50 musicians from L.A.," Mr. Robinson said.
The Oxnard-based New West Symphony agreed to provide the timpani for the evening so the bulky set of percussion instruments wouldn't have to be shipped south. "Different groups are banding together to help one another," Mr. Robinson said
Symphony officials chartered a small plane to take Mr. Campestrini, Mr. Nakamatsu and several local players to Oxnard. Those plans were canceled late Friday morning when the freeway opened, allowing the local musicians to vanpool.
Plans called for two additional rehearsals today at the Arlington, one in the morning and another in the afternoon. That means the players will endure something of a musical marathon, with three rehearsals and a concert over a 26-hour period.
Mr. Robinson had nothing but praise for Mr. Campestrini, who is a candidate to assume the music director position after Gisle Ben-Dor steps down at the end of next season.
"He has been positive and flexible and cool under pressure," Mr. Robinson said. The one thing he has been insisting on is that we have the maximum number of rehearsals that we can do."
That turned out to be one fewer than normal. In addition, the orchestra was forced to cancel a young people's concert for Friday morning. Mr. Robinson said he hopes to reschedule it for May.
"We expect (today's) concert to be inspirational," he added. "When the final chords of Dvorak's Eighth Symphony ring out, we're going to have an amazing feeling of accomplishment."
The concert will also feature Mozart's Piano Concerto No. 21, with Mr. Nakamatsu as soloist. For ticket information, call 963-4408.
The chamber music ensemble Camerata Pacifica faced similar challenges to present its Friday afternoon and evening concerts in Victoria Hall. Although two of its players were in town, the others had flown into Los Angeles from various locations for the performances.
On Tuesday, "They drove up to Bakersfield and looped around," said Melissa Seley, the ensemble's marketing and development coordinator. "Then they were stopped in Gaviota when a truck overturned. They spent the night in Lompoc and got here Wednesday."
Camerata officials, like their counterparts at the symphony, are intensely hoping the freeway stays open. Friday night's Victoria Hall concert is scheduled to be repeated tonight in Thousand Oaks and Sunday afternoon in Ventura.
Nineteen of the 25 least affordable housing markets in the U.S. are in California, according to the National Association of Home Buildings/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) for the third quarter of 2004. Leading the list of least affordable communities is Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc metropolitan area, where less than 5 percent of the homes sold were affordable to families earning the median household income of $64,700. San Francisco, which had previously held the title of least affordable housing market, moved to 11th on list.
Other California cities among the 25 least affordable metropolitan areas were: San Diego (2), Salinas (3), Los Angeles-Long Beach (4), Orange County (5), Yolo (6), San Luis Obispo-Atascadero-Paso Robles (7), Santa Cruz-Watsonville (8), Merced (9), Stockton-Lodi (10), Modesto (14), Santa Rosa (16), Sacramento (17), Oakland (19), Vallejo-Fairfield-Napa (20), Ventura (21), Yuba City (22), and Riverside-San Bernardino (24).
Lima, Ohio, where 90.5 percent of homes sold during the third quarter were affordable to families earning the area's median income of $52,500, is the nation's most affordable housing market. According to the HOI, the most affordable housing markets by region were: Pueblo, Colo. in the West; Lima in the Midwest; Cumberland, Md. in the South; and Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle, Pa., in the Northeast. The least affordable markets by region were: Santa Barbara in the West; Chicago in the Midwest; Naples, Fla. in the South; and Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. in the Northeast.
The California Coastal Commission approved a 62-unit housing subdivision for the Ellwood Mesa perimeter Wednesday -- a major milestone in a 20-year effort to shape development on the coastal wildland.
In a unanimous vote during a meeting in Long Beach, the commission gave the go-ahead to Comstock Homes and Development Partners.
"It couldn't have gone better," developer Bob Comstock said afterward.
He said the project will likely break ground in mid-April.
For years, several environmental groups have fought housing on the mesa and more recently worked with Mr. Comstock to refine his proposal. Plans call for 37 two-story and 25 one-story homes, ranging in size from 2,871 square feet to 4,141 square feet.
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has increased its single-family home mortgage limits by more than 7 percent from last year, the U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced earlier this week. Effective Jan. 1, 2005, FHA will insure single-family home mortgages up to $172,632 in low-cost areas and up to $312,895 in high-cost areas. The new loan limits are a part of an annual adjustment HUD makes to account for rising home prices. The loan limits in 2004 were $160,176 in low cost-areas and $290,319 in high-cost areas.
"These higher loan limits will help the FHA mortgage insurance program keep pace with the strong housing market while contributing to the Bush Administration's commitment to create 5.5 million new minority homeowners by the end of the decade," said Alphonso Jackson, secretary of HUD. "The new limits will help create more construction, more jobs, and more economic growth, while increasing homeownership."
The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications, a measure of mortgage loan applications, stood at 605.7 for the week ending Dec. 31, a decrease of 10.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 677.4 one week earlier, according to a report released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 9.4 percent for the week ending Dec. 31 compared with the previous week but was up 0.2 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 48.0 percent of total applications for the week ending Dec. 31 from 46.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 32.6 percent from 33.8 percent the previous week.
Due to improved home energy efficiency, rising fuel prices put less financial strain on American households in 2004 than originally anticipated, Freddie Mac recently reported. According to data analyzed by Freddie Mac economists, homes built in recent years are nearly twice as energy-efficient compared with the typical house built in the 1960s. Fuel costs amounted to approximately 0.8 percent of home value between 2000 and 2003, versus 1.8 percent before 1960 and an average of 1.3 percent during the energy crisis of the 1970s.
"Crude oil prices have pulled back from a peak of $55.23 per barrel this past October, but as the nation enters its coldest season, oil prices are still considerably higher than the $30 a barrel of West Texas crude cost a year ago," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. "And while we are certainly feeling the increase in oil prices at the gas pump and maybe even in our heating bills, the cost to families would be much greater if not for improvements in home energy efficiency."
Construction spending was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,013.3 billion in November 2004, 0.4 percent below the revised October estimate of $1,016.9 billion, according to a report released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Monday. November was the fifth consecutive month where the projected rate of construction spending topped $1 trillion.
Total spending on private residential construction was estimated at $554.7 billion, down 0.4 percent from October and up 10 percent from one year earlier. Spending on total private construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $777.1 billion.
The California residential real estate market in 2004 was one for the record books, according to C.A.R. Home sales for 2004 are projected to increase 3 percent over 2003's record sales figure of 601,800 existing detached homes, even with December's housing market statistics unavailable until later this month. The annual median sales price of an existing single-family home will exceed $450,000, 22 percent higher than the 2003 annual median of $372,700.
Additionally, C.A.R.'s Housing Affordability Index (HAI) fell to 19 percent in May, the first time the index has hit the teens since December 1989. Since that time, rapid price appreciation and marginally lower interest rates have generally offset each other, keeping the HAI in the 18- to 19-percent range throughout the summer and fall of this year. If not for unexpectedly low interest rates throughout much of the year, price appreciation might have driven the HAI to historically low levels that were last seen in May/June 1989 (14 percent).
Today's Casa Article is all about getting better pictures with those Cellphone/Cameras you're all getting. It's a pretty cool feature, but the results are often not very good. There are definitely ways to improve the photos you get so for more please read Hello, Click, Hello, Ugh!!
In what could amount to a death knell for commuter train service from Ventura to Santa Barbara during major construction on Highway 101, Caltrans is putting the brakes on a plan to study rail transit.
The state agency has filed an appeal over Santa Barbara's requirement to have Caltrans consider the pros and cons of rail service during the highway construction.
The appeal came as a surprise, largely because Caltrans appeared eager last month to move swiftly on a study. Now the state agency contends that studying rail may slow down its plans to improve traffic congestion on Highway 101. The protest has caused a behind-the-scenes flare-up, and now the parties are scrambling to meet in private to resolve their differences without a dramatic meeting in front of the City Council.
A judge upheld $5.6 million in jury verdicts against Santa Barbara County on Tuesday and ruled the county must also pay $1.1 million to a Santa Maria farming company for attorney fees and costs in a lawsuit involving farmland wrongly designated as protected wetlands.
The county's attorney unsuccessfully argued the recent verdicts -- including $130,000 in punitive damages against three current and former county employees and a county-paid consultant -- were excessive and legally unjustified.
A court ruling to clarify whether current tenants, newcomers or both should benefit from Goleta's mobile home rent control law is expected this week.
Nervously awaiting the U.S. District Court decision are residents, such as Alex Orozco, who rent space for their mobile homes.
Ms. Orozco, 30, a single mother with two children, ages 14 and 15, said she bought her coach a year ago for $160,000. She pays $310 a month for it to occupy a spot at Rancho Estates Mobile Home Park located along Hollister Avenue.
Eager to move her family south toward Chino, where she plans to start a higher-paying job at the end of this month, Ms. Orozco, a billing manager for Global Brand Marketing, fears she won't be able to sell her coach if the park owners raise the rent on the space.
The park management recently signaled that rent on her space would nearly triple following the sale of her unit in place -- if, that is, the court in Los Angeles strikes down Goleta's rule preventing such an increase, she said.
Sales of new single-family homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.125 million units in November 2004, according to estimates recently released by the U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development. While November's rate represents a 12 percent decline from October's revised sales pace of 1.278 units, the November rate was 3.6 percent above the sales pace compared to the same period one year earlier. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 418,000, representing a 4.5-month supply at the current sales pace.
Regionally, sales in the Northeast, Midwest and West all declined In November. The Midwest posted the largest decrease at 39.4 percent, while sales fell 27.9 percent in the West and 7.1 percent in the Northeast. Sales in the South increased 13.6 percent for the month.
Well its the New Year. Were currently having a party, our first since moving to Santa Barbara. We used to have these at least a couple times a year but with mom being so sick it was tough. Theyre playing chamber music downstairs and Im watching the Rose Bowl upstairs.
Its great to have friend in and enjoy their fellowship. Stay tuned for more!