Beautiful Santa Barbara Blog

Days on the Market for ’08 through 2/14 for Carpinteria/Summerland plus ’08 to ’07 cumulative numbers

Through the middle of February ’08 for Carpinteria Real Estate/ Summerland Real Estate there have been 5 Home Estate/PUDs properties sell. This is 2 fewer than we saw for the same period in ’07. The Median Sales price has dropped significantly in ’08 to $946,125 from $1,615,000 in 07. To get the $946,125 number for ’08 we saw the Original List Price to Sales Price ratio drop to 88.5% compared to the 98.4% ratio for ’07. The dramatic drop in the Median Sales Price is more reflective of sales focusing not in the more exact areas of Carpinteria/Summerland like Padaro and Sandyland Cove. The Days on the Market for the homes that sold in ‘08 stands at 60 and in ’07 it was 58.

For Condominiums in Carpinteria Real Estate/ Summerland Real Estate there have been 2 sales in ’02 as opposed to 2 sales for the same time period last year. The Median Sales price for ’08 is $372,500 compared to the $515,000 number of ’07. This is a substantial drop in the Median Sales price and is certainly a contributing factor for the increased year over year sales. The Original List Price to Sales Price ratio of 89.34% for ’08 compared to 72.54 for ’07. The Days on the market is substantially less than it was in ’07 when it was 239. Currently it is 139. This not an insignificant number but a whole lot less than 239.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for the first Month of ’08 for Goleta North

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Goleta Real Estate North for the first month of ’07 in the Single Family Home market 4 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $870,000 and an average sold price of $881,750. For ’08 8 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $760,000 and an average sold price of $888,125. For ’07 19 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $1,150,000 and an average asking price of $1,907,883. For ’08 25 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $900,000 and an average asking price of $1,119,539. For ‘07 16 properties went into escrow, 0 were withdrawn from the market, 2 listings cancelled, 8 expired and 2 came back on the market. For ‘08 15 properties went into escrow, 2 were withdrawn from the market, 3 listings cancelled, 15 expired and 5 came back on the market. Currently there are 56 homes for sale in the area with a median list price of $999,500 and an average list price of $2,100,237.

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Goleta Real Estate North for the first month of ’07 in the Condo market 7 condos closed escrow with a median sold price of $532,500 and an average sold price of $498,528. For ’08 2 condos closed escrow with a median sold price of $529,500 and an average sold price of $529,500. For ’07 10 condos came on the market with a median asking price of $560,000 and an average asking price of $590,210. For ’08 6 condos came on the market with a median asking price of $510,000 and an average asking price of $546,231. For ’07 5 properties went into escrow, 2 were withdrawn from the market, 3 listings cancelled, 3 expired and 1 came back on the market. For ’08 2 properties went into escrow, 0 were withdrawn from the market, 1 listing cancelled, 5 expired and 1 came back on the market. Currently there are 17 condos for sale in the area with a median list price of $499,999 and an average list price of $538,381.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for the first Month of ’08 for Goleta South

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Goleta Real Estate South for the first month of ’07 in the Single Family Home market 6 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $852,000 and an average sold price of $953,833. For ’08 6 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $922,500 and an average sold price of $1,044,000. For ’07 15 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $899,000 and an average asking price of $1,072,391. For ’08 13 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $857,000 and an average asking price of $1,004,990. For ’07 11 properties went into escrow, 1 was withdrawn from the market, 2 listings cancelled, 5 expired and 4 came back on the market. For ’08 41 properties went into escrow, 0 were withdrawn from the market, 2 listings cancelled, 6 expired and 2 came back on the market. Currently there are 48 homes for sale in the area with a median list price of $875,000 and an average list price of $1,464,320.

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Goleta Real Estate South for the first month of ’07 in the Condo market 6 condos closed escrow with a median sold price of $620,751 and an average sold price of $604,750. For ’08 4 condos closed escrow with a median sold price of $580,000 and an average sold price of $581,250. For ’07 17 condos came on the market with a median asking price of $499,000 and an average asking price of $526,173. For ’08 11 condos came on the market with a median asking price of $630,000 and an average asking price of $624,809. For ’07 5 properties went into escrow, 2 were withdrawn from the market, 5 listings cancelled, 7 expired and 1 came back on the market. For ’08 7 properties went into escrow, 0 were withdrawn from the market, 1 listing cancelled, 8 expired and 0 came back on the market. Currently there are 35 condos for sale in the area with a median list price of $634,000 and an average list price of $607,222.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for the first Month of ’08 for Hope Ranch

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Hope Ranch Real Estate for the first month of ’07 in the Single Family Home market 1 home closed escrow with a median sold price of $6,900,000 and an average sold price of $6,900,000. For ‘08 2 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $2,080,000 and an average sold price of $2,080,000. For ’07 4 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $2,150,000 and an average asking price of $3,698,500. For ’08 4 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $2,295,000 and an average asking price of $3,633,750. For ‘07 2 properties went into escrow, 1 was withdrawn from the market, 1 listing cancelled, 5 expired and 1 came back on the market. For ‘08 1 property went into escrow, 0 were withdrawn from the market, 0 listings cancelled, 1 expired and 0 came back on the market. Currently there are 12 homes for sale in the area with a median list price of $2,598,000 and an average list price of $5,807,333.

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Hope Ranch Real Estate for the first month of ’08 in the Condo market there was no activity.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for the first Month of ’08 for West of State St

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of West of State St for the first month of ’07 in the Single Family Home market 14 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $1,150,000 and an average sold price of $1,327,035. For ’08 3 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $800,000 and an average sold price of $950,000. In ’07 30 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $1,100,000 and an average asking price of $1,362,733. In ’08 35 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $899,500 and an average asking price of $1,172,480. For ‘07 9 properties went into escrow, 3 were withdrawn from the market, 7 listings cancelled, 13 expired and 2 came back on the market. Currently there are 94 homes for sale in the area with a median list price of $1,099,999 and an average list price of $1,288,718.

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of West of State St for the first month of ’07 in the Condo market 4 condos closed escrow with a median sold price of $648,500 and an average sold price of $608,375. For ’08 4 condos closed escrow with a median sold price of $824,000 and an average sold price of $784,500. In ’07 18 condos came on the market with a median asking price of $649,000 and an average asking price of $966,861. For ‘07 3 properties went into escrow, 1 was withdrawn from the market, 0 listings cancelled, 11 expired and 2 came back on the market. Currently there are 44 condos for sale in the area with a median list price of $779,000 and an average list price of $986,728.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for the first Month of ’08 for East of State St

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of East of State St for the first month of ’07 in the Single Family Home market 12 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $935,000 and an average sold price of $999,083. For ’08 10 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $1,222,500 and an average sold price of $1,488,100. In ’07 40 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $1,262,500 and an average asking price of $1,637,782. In ’08 40 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $1,299,000 and an average asking price of $1,489,797. For ‘07 25 properties went into escrow, 7 were withdrawn from the market, 6 listings cancelled, 16 expired and 7 came back on the market. For ‘08 10 properties went into escrow, 2 were withdrawn from the market, 7 listings cancelled, 26 expired and 4 came back on the market. Currently there are 126 homes for sale in the area with a median list price of $1,395,000 and an average list price of $1,799,427.

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of East of State St for the first month of ’07 in the Condo market 6 condos closed escrow with a median sold price of $749,000 and an average sold price of $707,416. For ’08 5 condos closed escrow with a median sold price of $699,000 and an average sold price of $662,400. In ’07 13 condos came on the market with a median asking price of $775,000 and an average asking price of $894,115. In ’08 18 condos came on the market with a median asking price of $899,000 and an average asking price of $1,119,390. For ’08 3 properties went into escrow, 5 were withdrawn from the market, 2 listings cancelled, 8 expired and 1 came back on the market. Currently there are 43 condos for sale in the area with a median list price of $899,000 and an average list price of $1,119,390.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for the first Month of ’08 for Montecito

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Montecito Real Estate for the first month of ’07 in the Single Family Home market 13 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $2,900,000 and an average sold price of $3,564,423. For ’08 9 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $4,500,000 and an average sold price of $6,930,333. In ’07 37 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $3,822,000 and an average asking price of $5,801,918. In ’08 25 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $3,145,000 and an average asking price of $5,301,359. Also for ‘07 15 properties went into escrow, 4 were withdrawn from the market, 7 listings cancelled, 21 expired and 8 came back on the market. For ‘08 12 properties went into escrow, 4 were withdrawn from the market, 2 listings cancelled, 21 expired and 10 came back on the market. Currently there are 114 homes for sale in the area with a median list price of $3,585,000 and an average list price of $6,633,535.

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Montecito Real Estate for the first month of ’07 in the Condo market 5 condos closed escrow with a median sold price of $1,475,000 and an average sold price of $1,377,000. For ‘08 1 condo closed escrow with a median sold price of $1,750,000 and an average sold price of $1,750,000. In ’07 7 condos came on the market with a median asking price of $1,895,000 and an average asking price of $1,764,142. In ’08 2 condos came on the market with a median asking price of $1,000,000 and an average asking price of $1,000,000. Also for ‘07 3 properties went into escrow, 1 was withdrawn from the market, 1 listing cancelled, 4 expired and 0 came back on the market. And for ‘08 1 property went into escrow, 0 were withdrawn from the market, 1 listing cancelled, 2 expired and 0 came back on the market. Currently there are 12 condos for sale in the area with a median list price of $1,779,000 and an average list price of $1,983,662.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for the first Month of ’08 for Carpinteria/Summerland

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Carpinteria Real Estate/ Summerland Real Estate for the first month of ’07 in the Single Family Home market 5 homes closed escrow with a median sold price of $1,615,000 and an average sold price of $3,088,000. In ’08 there were 3 sales, with a Median Sales price of $946,125 and an average sales price of $877,008. 9 homes came on the market with a median asking price of $859,000 and an average asking price of $948,333 in ’07 and in ’08 7 homes came on the market with a Median List price of $1,129,000 and an average list price of $2,373,714. For ’07, 5 properties went into escrow, 3 were withdrawn from the market, 2 listings cancelled, 5 expired and 2 came back on the market. For ’08 2 properties went into escrow, 6 were withdrawn from the market, 1 listing cancelled, 14 expired and 2 came back on the market. Currently there are 43 homes for sale in the area with a median list price of $1,400,000 and an average list price of $4,235,320.

For the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Carpinteria Real Estate/ Summerland Real Estate for the first month of ’07 in the Condo market 0 condos closed escrow with a median sold price of $0 and an average sold price of $0. For the first month of ’08 in the Condo market 2 condos closed escrow with a median sold price of $372,500 and an average sold price of $372,500. 9 condos came on the market in ’07 with a median asking price of $589,000 and an average asking price of $590,444 and in ’08 8 condos came on the market with a median asking price of $549,000 and an average asking price of $554,250. For ‘07 5 properties went into escrow, 1 was withdrawn from the market, 3 listings cancelled, 8 expired and 1 came back on the market. In ’08 1 property went into escrow, 1 was withdrawn from the market, 4 listings cancelled, 6 expired and 6 came back on the market. Currently there are 39 condos for sale in the area with a median list price of $579,000 and an average list price of $626,460.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for Goleta South and the Gap between Median Sales and Median List Prices for 1/1/2008 to 1/27/2008

For Santa Barbara Real Estate’s Goleta Real EstateSouth area the Median Scales price for the first month of the year for Home and Estates/PUDs was $780,000 and for January 2007 it was $900,000. This is a 23% decline from year to year. Looking at the Median List price for 2008 it’s been $975,000 as compared to the 2007 Median List price of $1,129,000. This is about a 14% difference year over year.

The gap between the current Median Sales price of $780,000 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $975,000 is $195,000. This means that the gap between the two prices is 20%.

The fact to keep in mind is that for the Goleta Real Estate South areas there were only 5 properties sold so all the numbers are going to move around quite a bit. The Average Days on the Market, which is the time from when the properties were listed and when they went into escrow for those 5, was 59 days.

For Santa Barbara Real Estate’s Goleta South area for the 1st month of the year for Condos the Median Sales price was $470,000. This can be compared to the 2007 figure of $534,500. The gap between the current Median Sales price of $470,000 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $499,999 is almost $20,000. The Median List price for 2008 is $499,999 compared to the Median List price for 2007, which was $569,000.

The gap between the Median Sales price of $470,000 and the Median List price $499,999 therefore is 6%.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for Goleta South and the Gap between Median Sales and Median List Prices for 1/1/2008 to 1/26/2008

For Santa Barbara Real Estate’s Goleta Real Estate South area the Median Scales price for the first month of the year for Home and Estates/PUDs was $1,100,000 and for January 2007 it was $953,833. This is a 14% rise from year to year. Looking at the Median List price for 2008 it’s been $849,000 as compared to the 2007 Median List price of $949,000. This is about an 11% difference year over year.

The gap between the current Median Sales price of $1,100,000 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $849,000 is $251,000 to the plus side. This means that the gap between the two prices is +23%.

The fact to keep in mind is that for the Goleta South areas there were only 4 properties sold so all the numbers are going to move around quite a bit. The Average Days on the Market, which is the time from when the properties were listed and when they went into escrow for those 4, was 181 days.

For Santa Barbara Real Estate’s Goleta Real Estate South area for the 1st month of the year for Condos the Median Sales price was $570,000. This can be compared to the 2007 figure of $560,000. The gap between the current Median Sales price of $570,000 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $635,900 is $65,900. The Median List price for 2008 is $635,900 compared to the Median List price for 2007, which was $525,000.

The gap between the Median Sales price of $570,000 and the Median List price $635,900 therefore is about 11%.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for Hope Ranch and the Gap between Median Sales and Median List Prices for 1/1/2008 to 1/26/2008

For Santa Barbara Real Estate’s Hope Ranch Real Estate area the Median Scales price for the first month of the year for Home and Estates/PUDs was $2,080,000 and for January 2007 it was $6,900,000. This is a 330% rise from year to year. The thing to be remembered her is these numbers represent only one sale in ’07 and 2 in ’08. Looking at the Median List price for 2008 it’s been $2,598,000 as compared to the 2007 Median List price of $2,995,000. This is a 14% difference year over year.

The gap between the current Median Sales price of $2,080,000 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $2,598,000 is $518,000. This means that the gap between the two prices is about 25%.

The fact to keep in mind is that for the Hope Ranch areas there were only 2 properties sold so all the numbers are going to move around quite a bit. The Average Days on the Market, which is the time from when the properties were listed and when they went into escrow for those 2, was 114 days.

For Santa Barbara Real Estate’s Hope Ranch Real Estate area for the 1st month of the year for Condos there was no activity.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for West of State St and the Gap between Median Sales and Median List Prices for 1/1/2008 to 1/26/2008

For Santa Barbara Real Estate West of State St area the Median Scales price for the first month of the year for Home and Estates/PUDs was $1,025,000 and for January 2007 it was $899,500. This is about a 13% rise from year to year. Looking at the Median List price for 2008 it’s been $1,129,000 as compared to the 2007 Median List price of $1,395,000. This is about a 20% difference year over year.

The gap between the current Median Sales price of $1,195,000 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $1,199,000 is $4,000. This means that the gap between the two prices is 0.4%. At this point in the year we seem to have struck a balance on the West Side of Santa Barbara

The fact to keep in mind is that for the West of State St areas there were only 2 properties sold so all the numbers are going to move around quite a bit. The Average Days on the Market, which is the time from when the properties were listed and when they went into escrow for those 2, was 93 days.

For Santa Barbara Real Estate West of State St area for the 1st month of the year for Condos the Median Sales price was $824,000. This can be compared to the 2007 figure of $659,000. The gap between the current Median Sales price of $824,000 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $724,500 is almost $100,000. The Median List price for 2008 is $724,500 compared to the Median List price for 2007, which was $659,000.

The gap between the Median Sales price of $824,000 and the Median List price $724,500 therefore is about a positive 12%.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for East of State St and the Gap between Median Sales and Median List Prices for 1/1/2008 to 1/26/2008

For Santa Barbara Real Estate East of State St area the Median Scales price for the first month of the year for Home and Estates/PUDs was $1,195,000 and for January 2007 it was $969,833. This is about a 20% decline from year to year. Looking at the Median List price for 200 it’s been $1,489,000 as compared to the 2007 Median List price of $1,395,000. This is about a 6.5% difference year over year.

The gap between the current Median Sales price of $1,195,000 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $1,489,000 is $294,000. This means that the gap between the two prices is 13%.

The fact to keep in mind is that for the East of State St areas there were only 7 properties sold so all the numbers are going to move around quite a bit. The Average Days on the Market, which is the time from when the properties were listed and when they went into escrow for those 7, was 68 days.

For Santa Barbara Real Estate East of State St area for the 1st month of the year for Condos the Median Sales price was $729,000. This can be compared to the 2007 figure of $787,000. The gap between the current Median Sales price of $729,000 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $990,000 is over $260,000. The Median List price for 2008 is $990,000 compared to the Median List price for 2007, which was $775,000.

The gap between the Median Sales price of $729,000 and the Median List price $990,000 therefore is about 36%.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for Montecito and the Gap between Median Sales and Median List Prices for 1/1/ ’08 to 1/26 ‘08

For Santa Barbara Real Estate’s Montecito Real Estate area the Median Scales price for the first month of the year for Home and Estates/PUDs was $5,217,500 and for January 2007 it was $2,900,000. This is a 45% rise from year to year. Again this is very early in the year and the Media Sales price tends to move around a lot from month to month. Looking at the Median List price for 2008 it’s been $3,595,000 as compared to the 2007 Median List price of $3,650,000. This is a 1.6% difference year over year.

The gap between the current Median Sales price of $5,612,000 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $3,595,000 is over $2,000,000 on the plus side. This disparity definitely won’t continue but it is fun to look at now.

The fact to keep in mind is that for the Montecito areas there were only 6 properties sold so all the numbers are going to move around quite a bit. The Average Days on the Market, which is the time from when the properties were listed and when they went into escrow for those 6, was 120 days.

For Santa Barbara Real Estate’s Montecito Real Estate area for the 1st month of the year for Condos the Median Sales price was $1,750,000 with only 1 condo closing escrow. This can be compared to the 2007 figure of $1,575,000 when 5 had closed escrow. The gap between the current Median Sales price of $1,750,000 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $1,800,000 is $50,000. The Median List price for 2008 is $1,780,000 compared to the Median List price for 2007, which was $1,292,000.

The gap between the Median Sales price of $1,750,000 and the Median List price $1,780,000 therefore is 1.7%. Again, we’re very early in the year but so far Montecito condos are holding their price.

Santa Barbara Real Estate for Carpinteria/Summerland and the Gap between Median Sales and Median List Prices for 1/1/2008 to 1/26/2008

For Santa Barbara Real Estate’s Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate area the Median Sales price for the first month of the year for Home and Estates/PUDs was $798,012 and for January 2007 it was $1,615,000. This is about a 50% rise from year to year. This is a very deceptive number however because early in 2007 there were a number of very high end properties that closed escrow thereby skewing the percentage. Looking at the Median List price for 2008 it’s been $1,595,000 as compared to the 2007 Median List price of $1,149,000. This is a 30% difference year over year. Primarily what it means is that more houses are listed on the upper end this year as opposed to last year.

The gap between the current Median Sales price of $798,012 and the current Median List price for the entire inventory of $1,595,000 is almost $800,000. This means that the gap between the two prices is about 50%.

The fact to keep in mind is that for the Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate areas there were only 2 properties sold so far so all the numbers are going to move around quite a bit. The Average Days on the Market, which is the time from when the properties were listed and when they went into escrow for those 2, was 87 days.

For Santa Barbara Real Estate’s Carpinteria/Summerland area for the 1st month of the year for Condos the Median Sales price was $372,500. This can be compared to the 2007 figure of $0 because nothing had sold at this point of the year. The Median List price for 2008 is $599,000 compared to the Median List price for 2007, which was $595,000.

The gap between the Median Sales price of $599,000 and the Median List price $595,000 therefore is 0.7%.

Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Goleta North from 1/1/08 to 1/19/08 compared to ’07 for the same period

The Condo market for the Goleta Real Estate North area of Santa Barbara the inventory is down by 38% from 34 last year to 21 this year. The new listings are also down by 37% with 8 in ’07 compared to 5 in ’08. As you would expect numbers of escrow is down from 2 last year to the current 2 for a 50% drop and the numbers of sold properties is way down with 4 in ’07 compared to 1 in ‘08. The average sales price has declined slightly from $430,800 to the current $470,000 for a 9% drop.

For Home Estates in the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Goleta Real Estate North the total inventory is up by 6 for an 8% rise and the new properties are also up by 46% from 13 last year to 19 this year. The numbers of escrows has seen a decline from 8 in ’07 to the current 4 a 50% drop. But the numbers of sold properties is now down by as much from 4 in ’07 to 3 in ’08. The Average Sales price has declined markedly posting a $1,103,000 in ’07 to the current $756,667 in ’08 for a 31% decline.

The PUD market for the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Goleta Real Estate North numbers for the total inventory are down this year from 5 to 2 for a 60% decline but everything else for both years shows us 0. No new listings, no escrows and no sales.

Santa Barbara Real Estate through the end of January ‘08 for Carpinteria/Summerland, Hope Ranch, Montecito and Goleta

These numbers were compiled on the 2nd of February so they will rise probably around 10% to 15% throughout the month as offices complete reporting the January sales figures. That said, we see that on February 2nd from Carpinteria Real Estate/Summerland Real Estate, Montecito Real Estate, downtown Santa Barbara Real Estate, Hope Ranch Real Estate to Goleta Real Estate for Homes Estate/PUDs in January there were 40 closed sales posted. That means the final numbers should be about 44 to 46 for the month of January. This compares to the 44 for December ’07.

The Median Sales price for the month is again over $1 million coming in at $1,130,000 compared to the $929,000 mark for December. This means that there is more balance in this month as compared to last. 17 of the 40 sales were $1 million and below and 12 were $2 million and above. Also returning in January we see that 3 properties closed escrow at $5 million plus. It was this upper end of the market that drove the numbers throughout the first half of ’07 so hopefully it will lead the way again.

What is definitely leading the way at this point is the numbers of properties which entered escrow in January. While we posted only 40 sales for the period, 56 Home Estates entered escrow. This activity is definitely below ’06 and ’07 for the months of January but it does mean there are more people coming into the marketplace who are willing to make offers which have been accepted by the sellers than we’ve seen in the last two months.

The hot market right now seems to be in the area of $600,000 to $800,000. I’ve heard reports of multiple offers on some properties in this price range and have even seen some price increases. I think the price increases are coming from the banks if they find themselves in a short pay situation where they are owed more than the property is currently worth, but we’ll have to see whether these rises will act as a drag on that segment of the market or whether there is enough interest to keep it moving forward.

There is definitely a lot of interest from investors which tells me that they think the bottom of the market has been reached. I know of an investor who purchased a property at auction for about $415,000 and immediately placed it on the market below $600,000. If the investor is able to turn the property in the mid to low $500,000s that would be a substantial profit and more importantly to me it means that more homes in that price range would bring a substantial number of people into the marketplace that up until now have been squeezed out.

At this time the inventory of Home Estates is continuing to grow with 479 units on the market as of the end of January. The Median List price for those almost 500 homes is $1,559,000 which means that homes priced in the $1 to $2 million range are starting to stack up while those in the $600,000 to $1.2 million range are continuing to move.

One of the numbers that jumped out at me was the over 100 Listings that Expired in January and interestingly the Median List price of those homes was $1,595,000. Compare those Expired Properties to the 151 properties that came on the Market with a Median List price of $1,299,000. When you look at that Median List price for new homes and then calculate the Sales Price to Original List Price ratio of 90% you get $1,169,100 which is certainly within spitting distance of the current Median Sales price of $1,130,000.

While what we’ve seen is certainly not a tidal wave of activity it is still activity in the right direction. Properties are coming on the market at a Price Range which potential buyers have not seen in years and some sellers seem willing to find a number which results in a sale. Couple that momentum with Interest rates that continue to trickle down and I think the potential to turn the market around sooner rather than later is alive and well in the Santa Barbara area. I’m particularly encouraged by the broad spectrum of properties that sold during the month all the way from a high of $9.49 million to a low of $615,000.

For Condos I’m not nearly as optimistic. We saw 17 sales so far in January compared to the 12 we saw in December, but the numbers that went into escrow in January was also 17 which means we’re going to stay about at the same level of activity we’ve seen for the past 2 months. The Median Sales price for January was $590,000 which compares to 1 year ago when it was $662,000. But $590,000 is up from where it was in December when it was $526,000.

At the end of January there were 188 Condos for sale from Carpinteria to Goleta with a Median List price of $685,000. When you compare that to the Median Sold price of $590,000 you see a substantial gap of almost $100,000 between what people are asking for the properties and what people are willing to pay.

Just like with Home Estates there were a substantial number of Condo Listings that Expired in January. For the 42 Expired Listings the Median List price was $675,000 just $10,000 off the current overall Inventory Median List price of $685,000. But when you look at the 61 New Listings coming on the market with a Median List price of $630,000 and you then factor in the Sales Price to Original List Price ratio of 90% you get $567,000 which is actually below the current Median Sales price. This tells me that the people coming on the market now with their condos are more likely to get a sale than in the previous couple of months but at this point that’s only a theory.

The Price Range of Sales for Condos in January shows us a top of $1,750,000 and a low of $290,000. This means that there is a rather wide diversity in the marketplace and that activity is not confined to only one part of the spectrum.

The one really worrisome element to me in the Condo Market is the dramatic increase in Condos that have fallen out of escrow. With 17 Sales and 17 properties entering escrow we’ve seen 7 Condos fall out of escrow for about a 41% Fall Through rate. This is a combination of Buyers getting cold feet, Lenders not wanting to take even somewhat marginal risks and the general feeling that prices are going to drop even further.

At this point it’s difficult to come up with a scenario that will break the condo market open. List Prices have continued to drift downward but so far the buyers are still standing on the sidelines.

Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Goleta South from 1/1/08 to 1/19/08 compared to ’06 for the same period

The Condo market for the Goleta Real Estate South area of Santa Barbara there is a slight rise in the numbers of homes that have been on the market this year from 33 in ’07 to the current 39. The numbers of new listings is also down from 9 last year to 7 this year. But numbers of escrows is exactly the same as it was last year with 4. The numbers of sold properties is down from 3 last year to 2 this year for 33% drop. The Average Sales price however is almost exactly where it was last year. In ’07 we saw $568,834 and currently it’s at $570,000.

For Home Estates in the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Goleta Real Estate South the total inventory is up by 23 properties from 32 to 55 for a 71% rise but the new listings are down by 2 from 10 to 12. The numbers of escrow is down dramatically from 6 last year to 3 this year for a 50% and the numbers of sales has declined from 5 to 1 for a 80% drop. With the decline in the numbers of sales we’ve also seen a decline in the Average Sales price from $952,600 last year to the current $780,000 an 18% drop.

The PUD market for the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Goleta Real Estate South there is very little difference when viewed year over year. The total inventory is exactly the same with 3 properties on sale in both years but the new listings are down by 2 with 2 in ’07 and 0 in ’08. Everything else in both years is a 0. No escrow and no sales.

Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Hope Ranch from 1/1/08 to 1/19/08 compared to ’07 for the same period

The Condo market for the Hope Ranch Real Estate area of Santa Barbara estate saw now activity.

For Home Estates in the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Hope Ranch Real Estate the inventory is way down from what it was in ’07 when we saw 20 total listings. In ’07 there have been 12. The numbers of new listings is also down from 4 in ’07 to the current 2 in ’08.
The numbers of escrows is exactly where it was last year at this time with 0. Also the numbers of sales is exactly the same with 2. The Average Sales price is way down by 58% from $5,045,000 last year to $2,080,000 this year.

The PUD market for the Santa Barbara Real Estate area of Hope Ranch Real Estate saw no activity.